Is RJ Barrett’s Start to This Season Fool’s Gold?

It's fair to view RJ Barrett's stunning start to this season as a mirage. We're talking about a six-game sample size that's more likely to spit out random nebulosity than substantive development. Injuries to Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley have also created a circumstance for the Toronto Raptors where necessity is now the mother of Barrett's evolution.

Even if you recall the signs of progress he demonstrated after changing teams last year—excelling in the shadow of Toronto's degrading tank job before asserting himself as Team Canada's second-best player during the Olympics—everything we've seen over the past couple weeks is pretty shocking. Barrett has gone from an indistinguishable sidecar to a primary ball handler who consistently makes the right play.

Drafted third overall by the New York Knicks in 2019—after being touted as the most accomplished high school prospect since LeBron James —it'd be a smidge too harsh to call Barrett a disappointment. But, at the same time, last year he was seen as an expensive afterthought in the trade that sent him and Quickley to the Raptors for OG Anunoby . Up to that point, Barrett spent most of his career in lumbering, clumpy lineups that struggled to space the floor or score in the half court and made middling contributions that didn't signal much, if any, untapped potential hiding beneath the surface.

What you saw was what you got: an inefficient second (and then third) option who was up-and-down behind the 3-point line and just halfway decent attacking the basket. The Knicks were never particularly good with Barrett on the court and tended to be better when he sat. For such a prized draft pick, his development was rarely, if ever, prioritized. That's not a criticism of New York's front office, though. More the reality of Barrett's capability.

Today, on a different team and with greater responsibility and increased freedom, we're seeing extended glimpses of a much more useful player—someone productive and comfortable with the ball in his hands, who draws attention and punishes the help that rotates to slow him down.

The scoring numbers are what initially catch your eye. In four days, he dropped 31 points on the Hornets, 33 on the Lakers, and then 31 on the Kings; before that run, Barrett had never scored 30 or more points in three straight games .

He's more aggressive— last year's 11.4 drives per game has skyrocketed to 16.8 (which is tied with Ja Morant)—and decisive. The 2.2 assists Barrett is averaging from those drives is fourth in the entire league . Only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis are converting more baskets in the restricted area . Barrett hasn't been efficient, but he's averaging more points (25.7) than Jalen Brunson, Devin Booker, and Donovan Mitchell , with independent shot creation that's necessary in lineups featuring second-stringers. And, under the weight of those mounting responsibilities, Barrett hasn't forced the issue as often as it might be reasonable to expect.

Even more astonishing is how he's responded to an expanded role with savvy, unselfish maturation. It's nothing short of transformative. Barrett somehow ranks sixth in usage percentage and 12th in assist rate , averaging 7.0 assists per game and nearly doubling his potential assist average from last season . His true usage rate (which more accurately reflects which players "use" every possession by crediting playmakers and finishers) is up 15.4 percentage points from last year, which is the biggest jump in the entire league . One month ago, he'd never tallied more than nine assists in a game. This season he logged 12 assists against the Lakers, then 10 against the Nuggets.

If the numbers hold, Barrett will be worth obvious All-Star consideration. But raw output is less meaningful than how his awareness has evolved to directly make everyone else's life easier. He's not only running a ton of pick-and-rolls, but also dissecting different coverages in ways that were completely foreign to him a couple years ago.

In the first play seen below, Barrett drives middle and makes Domantas Sabonis step up to stop his penetration, which forces DeMar DeRozan to help the helper and take away Jakob Poeltl's roll. As if moving through choreographed action in a dress rehearsal, Barrett then whisks a perfect cross-court pass off the dribble with his weak hand to a wide-open Ochai Agbaji. (TL;DR: He singlehandedly broke Sacramento's defense.) The next example came late in the fourth quarter: a stack pick-and-roll where De'Aaron Fox had to keep Barrett from turning the corner on Sabonis, which left Gradey Dick open at the top of the key.

And here he is keeping his cool against a blitz from Nikola Jokic. At once, Barrett is patient and prompt, dragging Denver's pursuit up high on the floor before he flings a dart to Jonathan Mogbo rolling through the paint:

A couple of weeks can't change someone's on-court reputation. But Barrett's mindset may have shifted in an encouraging direction. He's selfless, executing passes with a high degree of difficulty, and generally looks like someone his teammates can rely on to get them the ball if they screen and cut hard enough.

If this version of Barrett is for real, with higher efficiency once his current load lightens after Quickley and Barnes return, it may represent the seismic break every floundering franchise yearns for, fortuitous enough to clarify the Raptors' future and upend their short-term expectations. Once a sturdy yet inessential cog inside mediocre machinery, Barrett is currently supplying All-Star–caliber production. It may be coming in a losing situation with low stakes, but if it sustains, that can all change sooner than later.