Journal Poll: Most New Mexicans think crime is a serious problem

Sep. 18—Most New Mexicans think crime is a problem and that drugs, poverty and homelessness are to blame.

A smaller number believe illegal immigration, a broken criminal justice system and guns are the leading cause.

The results, compiled from a Journal poll of voters, came from two crime-related questions: How serious of a problem crime is and, separately, what is the leading cause of crime?

According to the poll, 84% of likely voters think crime is a very or somewhat serious problem, 12% see it as a minor problem and 3% see crime as "no problem at all."

"Crime is seen as a big problem and opinions do vary, depending on where you live and who you are," said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll.

For instance, women were more likely than men, 57% to 46%, to see crime as a "very serious" problem, according to the poll. Younger adults, between the ages of 18 and 34, were less likely to see crime as a very serious problem — compared with 61% of those ages 50 to 64 years old.

"Younger people are more likely to feel they're invulnerable," Sanderoff said with a chuckle, and added that 82% of young people still feel crime is more than just a minor problem.

The poll found that 60% of those who live in the Albuquerque metro area, where the majority of the state's crime occurs, feel it is a very serious problem while 37% in eastern New Mexico and 39% in Las Cruces and the southwestern part of the state agree.

In north central New Mexico, 22% see crime as a minor problem. Sanderoff pointed out that area encompasses more than just Santa Fe and includes Taos, Las Vegas and smaller communities.

"So we're seeing a big difference in perceptions regarding the seriousness of crime when it comes to how very serious it is," he said. "Attitudes toward the seriousness of crime do vary based on where you live or which political party you're a member of."

Republicans and conservatives were more likely, 60% and 61%, respectively, to say it's a very serious problem compared with 47% of Democrats and 38% of liberals, according to the poll.

"You're always going to hear those people, including probably (Albuquerque) Mayor (Tim) Keller and others, say, 'Well, yeah, crime is a problem, but the crime statistics demonstrate that we are plateauing or even in declining in certain crime statistics,'" Sanderoff said. "And so you'll always find some people who will say, 'Yeah, I think the perception is worse than the reality.' And liberals might be part of that group. They're more likely to defend Democratic leadership, whether it be in Albuquerque or the state of New Mexico."

For the question on the cause of crime, those polled were not given choices and were asked to offer a response to the professional interviewer.

The poll found that drugs took the top spot with 26% of likely voters saying it was the leading cause, followed by poverty with 16% and homelessness with 12%.

Sanderoff said "it's pretty telling" that a high proportion of likely voters cited drugs.

He said some may be thinking of cartels trafficking fentanyl across the border while others think of the violence: someone getting killed during a deal gone bad.

In north central New Mexico 37%, the highest majority, cited drugs and Sanderoff said that could be tied to places like Rio Arriba County's "generational problem with heroin."

"One thing of interest though — those three items are all interrelated," Sanderoff said. "... The top three causes that people mentioned, drugs, poverty and homelessness are all interrelated, because some of the key causes of homelessness are either poverty or drugs."

Democrats were more likely to mention those three as leading cause, according to the poll. Democrats and liberals, 21% and 29%, respectively, cited poverty compared with 7% of Republicans and 6% of conservatives.

The poll found that 8% of likely voters — largely Republicans — felt the cause was judges giving light sentences, 7% blamed a broken criminal justice system and 6% cited so-called "catch and release." Another 7% of likely voters said the cause was a poor economy, 7% said illegal immigration and 6% said guns.

Among Republicans, 15% cited illegal immigration compared with 1% of Democrats, according to the poll. Among Democrats, 9% said guns were the leading cause compared with 1% of Republicans.

"We've got the Republicans more likely to say things like light sentences from judges, illegal immigration, revolving door — they're more likely to mention those things than are the Democrats," Sanderoff said of the results. "Democrats lean more toward things like poverty, homelessness, drugs as well. So all of that's interesting."

He added, "So there are differences in the parties as to what they think the causes of crime are."

Poll methodology

The Journal poll is based on a statewide random sample of 532 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 6 through Sept. 13, excluding the evening of Sept. 10 (due to the presidential debate). The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (88%) and landlines (12%) of likely general election voters were used.