Nytimes

Lions predictions at NFL midseason: An Aidan Hutchinson return, and historic offense

Z.Baker25 min ago

The Detroit Lions have played eight games so far, which means we've reached the unofficial midseason mark. Time for some second-half predictions.

How will one of the league's best teams close out the regular season? What awards and accolades will their players receive? What will their road to the Super Bowl look like?

Here are a few guesses.

The Lions will be well-represented on the Pro Bowl and All-Pro list

The top teams in the NFL usually have a high number of Pro Bowlers and a handful of All-Pros. The Lions qualify as one. And they'll have options.

Let's start with the All-Pro discussion. Along the offensive line, Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell should be in the mix. They were All-Pros last year and remain among the best at their respective positions. Safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch have each played at an All-Pro level, among the league leaders in interceptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown is on pace for a less productive overall season than last year (102 receptions and 986 yards), but there's still time to make up ground. He ranks second in the NFL in touchdown catches with six.

It's going to be tough for Sam LaPorta to repeat his All-Pro status, but could others get there? Alim McNeill is having an excellent season, ranking fifth in pass-rush win rate, 10th in pressures among defensive tackles and serving as a strong run defender. He might need a hot stretch to really knock on the door, but for now, he's worth including in the conversation.

How about special teams? Jack Fox is having a strong year. He ranks second in yards per punt, first in net yards per punt and allows the second-fewest return yards per punt — a testament to his hangtime and Detroit's punt coverage team. Kalif Raymond leads all punt returns in yards and yards per return, and is tied for first in touchdowns with one. He looks like a frontrunner right now. There's also a chance we could see a special teamer like Jalen Reeves-Maybin earn another All-Pro nod, or perhaps a gunner Khalil Dorsey — whom Lions' special teams coordinator Dave Fipp called a "special player."

Counting stats might hurt Jared Goff , Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery but they've all played at a Pro Bowl level and could get in with the help of the fan vote. Maybe a guy like Kevin Zeitler , a Pro Bowler last season with the Ravens , could get in too.

All this to say, there are plenty of options, and the Lions will be well-represented — even if they can't actually participate in the weekend.

The Lions will have a top-15 scoring offense all-time

If you look at the list of top offenses in terms of points per game in NFL history, the Lions rank fairly high. Detroit averages 32.3 points per game, which leads the NFL despite a slow start to the year. It also would rank 17th all-time for a full season. Let's talk about it.

The Lions would need to average 33 points per game in their final nine games to surpass the 2004 Colts for top-15 all-time. It would put them at 32.6 points per game. But why stop there? In order to jump into the top-10, the Lions would need to score 316 points — roughly 35.1 per game — over their final nine games.

A bit lofty? Depends how you look at it. Since Week 3, the Lions have averaged 36 points per game. That's a six-game span (more than a third of the season). But will they be able to keep that pace? That's the tougher part. As things currently stand, eight of the Lions' final nine games will come against teams that rank in the upper half of the league in scoring defense (top 16). Only the Jaguars (third-most points allowed) rank outside. Could be tough to continue at a pace like that, which is why I'll stop at top-15. Not to mention, we could see some reserves in Week 18 the way this is going.

But hey, you never know.

Jared Goff won't win MVP, but he will finish top 3 in MVP voting

Let's talk about MVP. More often than not, the names at the top of the list are quarterbacks with great numbers or quarterbacks on the best teams. Though the volume hasn't been there, in part because the Lions aren't asking Goff to throw a ton and he's been a part of some blowout wins where he's taken a seat in the fourth quarter, Goff has been all-too-valuable to this offense. He's on pace for 3,900 yards, 30 TDs and 9 INTs. He leads the league in completion percentage at 74.9, ranks second in the NFL in passer rating and fifth in EPA per dropback. And to tie it all together, his team should continue to win.

That's what it takes to remain in the discussion. And while Lamar Jackson looks like the no-doubt frontrunner at the moment, we're just talking top 3 here.

The Lions won't remain among the top 5 scoring defenses, but they will finish top 10

Aaron Glenn deserves a ton of credit for how he's gotten this defense to play — with and without Aidan Hutchinson . Detroit ranks fifth in points per game allowed at 18.5. He's done a remarkable job getting the most out of the pieces at his disposal, even though his defense is missing plenty of players it entered the year relying on.

Where the Lions have really been stingy is third-down and red-zone defense. Per TruMedia, the Lions have allowed the lowest third-down conversion rate in the NFL (29.9 percent) and the fourth-lowest red-zone touchdown rate (43.5). They are essentially one of the league's best defenses in crunch time.

There's something to be said for that. This offseason, Glenn wanted corners who could hold their own in man coverage and he found them in Carlton Davis III, Terrion Arnold and nickel Amik Robertson . It hasn't always been pretty, with those two among the top five cornerbacks in man coverage snaps league-wide, but neither has complained. They'll give up some yards, but their steady play has allowed Detroit's safeties — Branch and Joseph — to thrive in their roles on the backend as opportunistic turnover-creators.

Let's focus on the numbers inside the 20. In the red zone, the Lions rank first in yards per attempt allowed (1.9), first in third-down conversion rate (9.1 percent), second in yards per play (2.0) and fifth in defensive EPA per play in man coverage (0.50). They've been lights out in that area of the field.

That's why I believe this defense can sustain this style of play without Hutchinson — especially now that Za'Darius Smith is in the fold. It's how they're wired. They brought in players with a challenge mindset for this very reason.

That said, I could see them falling outside the top 5, while remaining top 10. Nitpicking, I know.

The Lions will finish 13-4

Before the season, I predicted the Lions to finish 12-5 again — with the team looking more complete than it did a year ago. It would be the first time in franchise history the Lions would've won at least 10 games in consecutive seasons. Turns out, I undersold them.

I'm still somewhat conservative here, and a 14-3 finish wouldn't surprise me either, but given the remaining strength of schedule, I'll go with 13-4. Among Detroit's remaining games, they'll hit the road vs. the Texans (6-3) and 49ers (4-4, but presumably with a healthy Christian McCaffrey ). They'll host the 7-2 Buffalo Bills next month. They've got two more against a stingy Bears defense, and one apiece against the Packers (6-3) and Vikings (6-2). The Colts and Jaguars are in there, too.

That would make for a 6-3 finish in their final nine games. It's a slower pace than what they're currently on, but there's a lot of football to be left, against some quality teams.

The NFC will run through Detroit

At 7-1, the Lions have the best record in the NFC. After a slow start, Ben Johnson's offense looks like it's taken another leap. Goff is dialed in and the Lions aren't asking him to do too much, which has allowed him to complete passes at a near-75 percent clip. Detroit has the most efficient rushing offense in football and all sorts of playmakers. Even without Hutchinson, Detroit ranks 5th in points per game allowed thanks to its aforementioned tight red-zone defense and an opportunistic safety tandem of Branch and Joseph. The addition of Smith should help bolster the defensive line and improve a pass rush that left much to be desired from its edge rushers sans Hutchinson. There's a lot to like about this team.

According to the latest projections, courtesy of The Athletic's Austin Mock, the Lions have a 51 percent chance at a first-round bye — meaning a 51 percent chance to claim the NFC's No. 1 seed. No other NFC team was listed above 15 percent. This team has all the makings of a No. 1 seed. I think they get it done.

If the Lions make it to the Super Bowl, Aidan Hutchinson will play

I'll keep my Super Bowl prediction close to the vest until now. We can talk about that another time. Until then, let's discuss a player who might join them if they do indeed get there: Hutchinson.

I've been on the more skeptical side of this narrative if I'm being honest. Initially, it appeared Hutchinson's season would be over. It still could be, and this could all be wishful thinking and nothing more than a carrot to dangle as Hutchinson recovers. But the timeline the Lions provided — 4-6 months — could coincide with Super Bowl week in February, if Hutchinson is able to return on the earlier end of that spectrum. The fact that his injury occurred in Dallas and Hutchinson was able to be treated by Dr. Alan Jones of Baylor Scott and White Medical Center — one of the best hospitals for the injury Hutchinson sustained and doctors for the subsequent surgery he underwent — is as close to the best-case scenario as possible. It wasn't a compound fracture, so there's no risk of infection, either.

The final factor here is Hutchinson himself. He's one of the hardest workers I've covered. Those at Michigan were blown away by how quickly he was able to return from a fractured ankle suffered in college. It speaks to the way he attacks his rehabs. That leads me to believe he'll do everything in his power to play in that game, should the Lions make it there.

We'll see.

(Top photo: Dan Powers / Imagn Images)

0 Comments
0