It is Thanksgiving week in the NFL , which means a bunch of teams playing on short weeks with three games on Thursday and the league’s first-ever Black Friday game with the Miami Dolphins visiting the New York Jets .
All four short-week games feature lines of at least six points or more.
The Detroit Lions are more than a touchdown favorite against the Green Bay Packers , the Dallas Cowboys are double-digit favorites against the Washington Commanders , and the San Francisco 49ers are a touchdown road favorite against a Seattle Seahawks team that will have a banged-up Geno Smith playing.
On Friday, the Dolphins are also nearly a double-digit road favorite against the Jets and new starting quarterback Tim Boyle .
Things become more of a toss-up the rest of the week as only one other game ( Kansas City being more than a touchdown favorite on the road at Las Vegas) has a spread of more than four points.
There are also some huge games for playoff races around the NFL, including potential first-place showdowns in the NFC South ( New Orleans vs. Atlanta ) and AFC South ( Jacksonville vs. Houston ).
The other marquee game of the Week 12 slate will be in Philadelphia, where the Buffalo Bills will kick off the most difficult stretch of their schedule against a trio of Super Bowl contenders (at Philadelphia, at Kansas City and then home for Dallas). Was Josh Allen ’s big game in Week 11 a sign that he is back on track? Or is it more of the inconsistency that has defined his season to this point? We might get a big answer to that question on Sunday.
All odds from BetMGM . Looking for NFL tickets? Buy them here.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions – Thanksgiving
It is not often that Lions fans get a Thanksgiving game where their team is the one coming in favored. The Lions (8-2) are more than a touchdown favorite in this game. It is the first time they have been a favorite in their annual Thanksgiving Day game since the 2016 season.The Lions are 11-2 against the spread against Green Bay since the start of the 2017 season and have won each of the past five games against their NFC North rivals outright.Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been inconsistent this season, but is coming off one of his best passing games, throwing for 322 yards and two touchdowns with a 108 passer rating in last week’s win against the Los Angeles Chargers . He will be facing a much stiffer defensive challenge this week, however.The Lions are 6-1 against the spread when playing teams with a losing record this season and 21-9 in NFC games against the spread since the start of the 2021 season. The Packers are 17-8 against the spread as underdogs since the 2019 season.Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys – Thanksgiving
One of the two traditional hosts for Thanksgiving games (along with Detroit), this will be Dallas’ 56th Turkey Day appearance. The Cowboys are 32-22-1 on the holiday, including last season’s 28-20 victory over the Giants .Washington is 4-8 on Thanksgiving, and not surprisingly, most of those matchups have been against Dallas. The Cowboys hold an (ahem) commanding 2-8 edge in the teams’ holiday get-togethers. However, the visitors emerged victorious in the most recent Thanksgiving encounter, a 41-16 rout for the Commanders in 2020. Dak Prescott did not play in that 2020 loss due to injury. He’s 3-3 on Thanksgiving in his career, including two wins over Washington (2016, 2018). He’s thrown three touchdown passes with no interceptions while rushing for two scores in those two victories, compared to a combined six touchdowns (all passing) and five picks in his other Turkey Day starts.Commanders QB Sam Howell is No. 1 in the NFL in passing with 3,038 yards, but he’s also the current runaway leader in sacks taken (51). As a team, the Cowboys are tied for sixth with 33 sacks, and Micah Parsons is seventh with 10. He tied his career high with 2.5 sacks in last week’s win over Carolina .Leading into a day known for feasting, there’s been nothing bland about the play of Dallas’ cornerback DaRon Bland recorded his fourth pick-six in the 33-10 victory against the Panthers last Sunday. He’s already tied the single-season mark for interceptions returned for a touchdown.San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks – Thanksgiving
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith suffered a bruise to his triceps area in Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams , but Seattle coach Pete Carroll expects him to play in Thursday night’s game.The San Francisco defense suffered a major injury this past Sunday when Talanoa Hufanga , one of the league’s brightest young stars at safety, suffered a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. He was a first-team All-Pro a year ago.Concerns over 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy are a distant memory. He has thrown for 629 yards and six touchdowns in the past two weeks. His passer rating has topped 148 in both games, including a perfect 158.3 mark on Sunday. He gets to go against a Seahawks defense that ranks 19th in points against and 23rd in yards against.The Seahawks are a touchdown underdog at home, an unheard-of number for them at Lumen Field. They are 15-7 against the spread as home underdogs since 2011. The 49ers are just 1-4 against the spread in their past five games and 1-4 against the spread in their past five games as favorites.Miami Dolphins at New York Jets – Black Friday
While the NFL has an established history of playing games on Thanksgiving, this will be the first game to take place on Black Friday.All eyes are on the QB situation for the Jets. Coach Robert Saleh benched Zach Wilson and will start journeyman Tim Boyle. This move comes after Saleh replaced Wilson with Boyle late in the third quarter of last week’s 32-6 loss to the Bills. Boyle is 0-3 as a starter across his five seasons in the league, with all of those occurring in 2021 when he was with the Lions. Boyle has thrown three touchdown passes and nine picks in 18 total games in his career. Trevor Siemian will serve as Boyle’s backup with Wilson demoted to QB3, at least for now.For all of the vitriol directed toward Wilson, the running game must bear some blame for the Jets’ offensive ineptitude. In the team’s four wins, the offense has averaged 138.2 rushing yards per game. That number is almost cut in half in the six losses, dropping to 74.2.On the other side, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is currently second in the league in both passer rating (106.0) and touchdowns (21), and he’s third in yards (2,934). He has at least one touchdown pass in every game this season and has thrown multiple interceptions once. It also helps that Tagovailoa has been sacked 15 times in 10 games. Wilson has been sacked that many times in just his last three contests.Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill has 1,222 receiving yards in 10 games, putting him on pace for 2,077, which would set a new single-season record. Calvin Johnson holds the mark with 1,964 in 2012 (16 games). The Jets have generated 1,995 receiving yards as a team for the season.The Dolphins have won five of the past six meetings and hold a slim 58-56-1 advantage in the all-time series (including playoffs) against the Jets.Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
First place in the AFC South is on the line as Houston goes for the season sweep of the defending division champs. The Texans routed the Jaguars 37-17 on the road back in Week 3, even though they were outgained (404 to 366). Houston took full advantage of Jacksonville’s miscues, including two turnovers and a missed field goal. The Texans also blocked a field goal attempt, and Andrew Beck returned a kickoff 85 yards for a touchdown. C.J. Stroud is coming off his first rough outing in the NFL. He threw three interceptions last Sunday against Arizona but also had two touchdown passes. More importantly, the defense did its job as Houston won 21-16 for its third straight victory. Stroud finished with 336 passing yards to give him five 300-yard games in his first 10 career starts, along with an impressive 17:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Trevor Lawrence bounced back from his roughest performance of the season, totaling four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) in Jacksonville’s 34-3 home rout of Tennessee. Lawrence turned the ball over three times (two interceptions, fumble lost) in the Jaguars’ 34-3 loss to the 49ers in Week 10.Texans rookie WR Tank Dell has posted 20 receptions for 319 yards and four touchdowns during the team’s three-game winning streak.The Texans have won 10 of the past 11 meetings against the Jaguars.The Steelers will have a new offensive coordinator on Sunday after Matt Canada was fired on Tuesday. In 45 games under Canada (including playoffs), the Steelers never had more than 400 yards in a single game and scored more than 30 points twice.While the passing game has been awful, the Steelers’ running game is starting to get rolling, with 543 total yards in their last three games. That is an average of 181 yards per game. They rushed for 558 yards over the first seven games (only 79 yards per game). The big change has been rookie Broderick Jones starting at right tackle and running back Jaylen Warren taking on a bigger role in the offense.Bengals quarterback Jake Browning will make his first NFL start for the Bengals. Zac Taylor is 4-19 as the Bengals coach in games where Joe Burrow has not been his starting quarterback.The Steelers have not reached the over in eight of their 10 games this season, and given the quarterback matchup on Sunday, the over/under of 34 still might be extremely difficult for these teams to reach.Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
This is a matchup of teams in the midst of three-game losing streaks that are seemingly playing for draft position and potentially some people’s jobs. Carolina has the league’s worst record at 1-9, and there’s already speculation regarding head coach Frank Reich’s job security even though this is his first season at the helm. On the other side, Tennessee is 3-14 in its last 17 games.
Both teams are starting rookie quarterbacks. Since earning his first career NFL win in Week 8 against Houston, Bryce Young has thrown twice as many interceptions (four) as touchdown passes (two) while also getting sacked 14 times. Will Levis made history with a four-touchdown debut in a Week 8 win over Atlanta but has since tossed just two other scoring strikes while getting picked off twice and taken down behind the line of scrimmage 10 times.
It’s been a season-long struggle for Carolina’s offense. Only the Giants are averaging fewer total yards per game than the Panthers (266.7). Last week, they managed just 187 yards in a 33-10 beatdown courtesy of Dallas. Young finished with 77 net passing yards thanks to seven sacks (for 46 yards). Of his 16 completions, the longest was a 20-yard catch by TE Stephen Sullivan.
Titans RB Derrick Henry needs just two rushing yards to reach 9,000 in his career. He’s second to Eddie George (10,009) in Oilers/Titans franchise history and ranks 39
all-time.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are 0-6 this season when it comes to hitting the over against teams with a losing record, and have hit the over in just two of their past 11 road games. The over/under for Sunday’s game is at 42 points. A Saints win will keep them in sole possession of first place in the NFC South, while a Falcons win will put them into a tie for the top spot.The Falcons’ defense got off a strong start this season statistically but has hit a rut over the past three games. Atlanta has allowed at least 25 points and 350 yards in each game. The quarterbacks faced in those games: Will Levis (first NFL start), Joshua Dobbs (a week after joining his new team), and Kyle Murray (his second start after recovering from a torn ACL).The Falcons are turning back to second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder for the remainder of the season. He has failed to top a passer rating of 85 in six of his nine appearances this season. He has not thrown a touchdown pass since Oct. 15 and has major issues protecting the football, throwing six interceptions and fumbling seven times this season.Saints quarterback Derek Carr was still in the concussion protocol early in the week, which could leave doubt on his status for Sunday’s game. He has played significantly better in recent weeks following a dreadful start to the season. In his past three starts, he has four touchdowns with no interceptions and has a passer rating over 100 in two of those starts. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay has now lost five of its past six games, but to be fair, the competition has been fairly stiff. Of the five losses, the only team currently not holding a playoff spot is the 4-6 Falcons. The others have come against a pair of division leaders (Lions, 49ers) and the Texans and Bills, who are in wild-card position in the AFC.Tampa’s next four games present an opportunity to turn things around. Indianapolis (5-5) is the only opponent in this stretch without a losing record. Carolina, Atlanta and Green Bay are a combined 12 games below .500.The Colts come off their bye looking to make it three wins in a row, but are just 1-4 in Lucas Oil Stadium this season.Indianapolis waived All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard Tuesday.Tampa Bay is second to last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 270.7 and just yielded a perfect passer rating (158.3) to San Francisco’s Brock Purdy (21-of-25, 333 yards, three touchdowns) this past Sunday. Minshew enters this game with eight touchdown passes compared to six interceptions and is averaging only 172.1 passing yards per game.To make matters worse for the Bucs’ D, cornerbacks Jamel Dean (foot/ankle) and Carlton Davis (hip), as well as linebacker Lavonte David (groin), all left last week’s game due to injuries and were unable to return. This unit could be down as many as three key starters. New England Patriots at New York Giants
After being benched in the Patriots’ most recent loss, quarterback Mac Jones still took the first-team reps in the team’s only bye week practice. He has had a passer rating of 90.0 or lower in eight of his first 10 appearances this season, including five games of 80.0 or lower.Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito , meanwhile, is coming off the game of his life by throwing three touchdowns in a 31-19 win over the Washington Commanders. It was only the second game this season where the Giants scored more than 17 points.The Giants and Patriots games have gone under in 15 of 21 games this season.A loss on Sunday would clinch back-to-back losing seasons for Bill Belichick for the first time since the 1991, 1992 and 1993 seasons when he was still the coach of the Cleveland Browns . He has had just seven losing seasons in 29 years as an NFL head coach.Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
This is an intriguing pairing of two of the NFL’s hottest teams. Denver has won four in a row, while Cleveland has rattled off three straight victories. The Broncos’ surge has brought them back into the playoff conversation, while the Browns trail the Ravens by just one game in the win column for first place in the AFC North.Cleveland has been getting the job done with stout defense and coming up big in late-game situations. The Browns’ 13-10 victory over Pittsburgh last Sunday was secured by a 34-yard field goal from Dustin Hopkins with two seconds remaining. Cleveland has won five of its last six and has scored the game-winning points in the final two minutes of regulation in four of those victories.Denver’s defense may be on the opposite end of the leaderboard compared to the Browns’ top-ranked unit, but the Broncos’ D is largely the victim of one historically poor performance. Take away Miami’s Week 4 onslaught of 70 points and 726 yards, and Denver is giving up a much more respectable 363.9 yards and 22 points per game. The Broncos have been even stingier recently, allowing only 68 points while producing 13 takeaways during their four-game winning streak.Cleveland QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson picked up his first NFL win last Sunday in his second start, but he’s yet to throw a touchdown pass. DTR is 44-for-80 (55.5%) in four career games for 295 yards with four interceptions. The Broncos have recorded six picks over their last four games.Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback Kyler Murray has given the Cardinals offense a little bit of a boost since his return, but it still has not been great. He has one touchdown pass and two interceptions with a 77.6 passer rating since his return.Even though it has not always resulted in outright wins, the Cardinals are 4-1 at home this season against the spread. The Rams are also 0-4 against the spread in their past four games.The Rams offense has averaged just 16.1 points per game over the past six games. Even worse, star wide receiver Cooper Kupp was injured in Sunday’s win over the Seahawks with a low-ankle sprain, leaving his status for this week’s game in some doubt. Along with his injury, rookie Puka Nucua has also cooled off considerably over the past five games with just 23 catches, 325 yards and one touchdown.Keep an eye on Cardinals tight end Trey McBride . He has become a much bigger focal point of the team’s offense in recent weeks with 26 catches over the team’s past four games. He had just 15 catches over the first seven games of the season.Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia has won four in a row and owns the best record in the league at 9-1. The Eagles defeated Kansas City 21-17 in the rematch of Super Bowl LVII on Monday night. The Chiefs led 17-7 at halftime, but Philadelphia’s D pitched a shutout in the second half while Jalen Hurts had two rushing touchdowns in the come-from-behind win.The Eagles won despite giving up a season-high 168 rushing yards and allowing five sacks. They are still No. 1 against the run at 76.5 yards per game.Buffalo is coming off of its best defensive effort of the season. The Bills held the Jets to 155 yards, including just 63 rushing. They also recorded six sacks and forced four turnovers. Of course, the Jets’ offense pales compared to the Eagles, who rank ninth in total yards per game and fifth in scoring.Josh Allen has 205 combined touchdowns (passing and rushing) since entering the NFL in 2018 (88 total games, 87 starts). According to NFL Communications, that’s the most by a player in his first six seasons in NFL history.Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
These are not the typical Andy Reid- Patrick Mahomes Chiefs. After Monday’s loss against Philadelphia, the Chiefs are 14th in the NFL in points scored (their lowest ranking since 2014) and are third in the NFL in points against (their highest ranking since the 2015 season).All five Raiders home games have gone under this season, while only two games have gone over. Chiefs games against AFC West rivals have gone under this year. The over/under for Sunday’s game is set at 44 points. Only one Raiders game has exceeded 44 total points this season, while only three Chiefs games have.Mahomes’ 93.8 passer rating and his 6.9 yards per pass attempt would be the lowest marks of his career as a starting quarterback. He has finished with a passer rating lower than 100 just once (98.5) in five full years and a yards per attempt of less than eight yards (7.4) just once. The lack of production at wide receiver greatly impacts the Chiefs’ offense.The Aidan O’Connell experience at quarterback has not been great so far for the Raiders. He has managed only a 70.6 passer rating in his four starts with six interceptions, 12 sacks and only 6.5 yards per pass attempt. This is not a great matchup for him against that Chiefs defense.Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ defense is, once again, a major problem and wasted another great Justin Herbert performance this past Sunday. The Chargers are 31st in the NFL in yards against and 23rd in points against. They have never finished higher than 21st in points against in Herbert’s career.The Chargers’ defense was already one of the worst in the NFL and will now be without superstar edge rusher Joey Bosa for the foreseeable future.The Ravens enter the game with the NFL’s fourth-highest-scoring offense and have scored at least 31 points in their past five games. Given the Ravens offense, the lack of defense from the Chargers and Herbert’s ability to go off on any given week the over/under of 46 points might be tempting even though the Chargers are 1-7 against the over/under in their past eight games.With tight end Mark Andrews sidelined it would be reasonable to expect wide receivers Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. to take on bigger roles in the passing game. Beckham Jr. has looked significantly better the past three weeks, catching 10 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns during that stretch.Minnesota saw its five-game winning streak end with a 21-20 road loss to Denver this past Sunday night. The Vikings outgained the Broncos by 90 yards (385 to 295) but couldn’t overcome three turnovers and were outscored 12-3 in the fourth quarter.
Chicago also couldn’t protect a late lead as Detroit scored 17 points in the final three minutes to rally for a 31-26 victory at home. It was the Bears’ fourth loss by seven or fewer points this season. Even though Chicago was a big underdog, The Athletic’s
Ted Nguyen
didn’t think head coach Matt Eberflus was aggressive enough and it arguably cost his team a win.
Justin Fields returned after a four-game absence because of a thumb injury and finished with 169 passing yards and a game-high 104 rushing yards. It was Fields’ fifth 100-yard rushing effort in his career. In the Super Bowl era, the only quarterbacks with more are Lamar Jackson (13) and Michael Vick (10), according to NFL Communications.
The loss dropped Fields to 6-26 as a starter in his three seasons, including 0-3 against Minnesota. Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent went 2-2 at the helm after Fields injured his thumb in the Week 6 loss to the Vikings. Chicago has lost five in a row to its longtime division rivals.
There’s a chance Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring) could be activated from injured reserve and return to action on Monday night. In six career games against the Bears, Jefferson has posted 41 catches for 585 yards and two touchdowns. Minnesota is 5-1 in those games. The Vikings are on bye next week so the team may decide to keep Jefferson on IR to give him even more time to recover.
(Photo of Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy: David Jensen / )
