NOAA 2024-2025 winter weather outlook: How La Niña could impact Nashville and Middle Tennessee

Temperatures are cooling down in Nashville, signifying the chilly return of the winter season . Despite the cold temperatures and frost , Tennesseans can expect a slightly warmer than average winter headed into the last leg of 2024 and January and February of 2025.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , Tennesseans can expect above normal temperatures and precipitation December through February. The forecast predicts a 33-40% chance of above average temperatures for Middle Tennessee and a 33-40% chance of above average precipitation for some areas of the region.

The warmer than normal conditions can be attributed to La Niña, the climate pattern which causes periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures. La Niña has been predicted to emerge throughout November and is expected to continue until March of 2025.

What conditions can Nashville expect this winter? What NOAA predicts

Nashville and the Middle Tennessee area expected to experience a 33-40% chance of above average temperatures and about the usual average precipitation for some areas of the region.

Here are the averages for Nashville during December through February, according to the National Weather Service:

What is La Niña?

According to NOAA, during La Niña events, winds are stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold water to the surface. The cold waters in the Pacific then push the jet stream northward, which tend to lead to drought in the southern United States.

During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North. La Niña can also lead to a more severe hurricane season, added NOAA.

How will La Niña impact Tennessee? Will it snow?

Low pressure systems generally move north of the area during La Niña conditions, which often keeps Tennessee in the area of warmer temperatures, thus providing fuel for thunderstorms, National Weather Service Meteorologist Ryan Husted previously told the Tennessean.

The probabilities for the Volunteer State to experience a major winter event like snow or ice are lower, however extreme winter events can never be ruled out. For example, the La Niña winters of 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 both experienced above normal temperatures yet they still came with a "substantial" cold snap, added Husted.

Based on previous snowfall events, Music City favors normal (4.7 inches) and below normal snowfall during La Niña winters.

The winters of 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 2022-2023 were all La Niña winters, and they received 5.2 inches of snow (near normal), 9.5 inches of snow (above normal) and 1.2 inches of snow (below normal), respectively.

El Niño vs La Niña: What's the difference?

El Niño and La Niña are two opposing, climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can impact weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies. Experts refer to the systems as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

Episodes of El Niño and La Niña can last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years, said the National Ocean Service. Both patterns occur on average every two to seven years, but they don't occur on a regular schedule.

According to the National Ocean Service, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. While El Niño refers to the warming of ocean surface temperatures, La Niña refers to the cooling of ocean surface temperatures.

When is the first day of winter?

Meteorologically speaking , winter starts Dec. 1. But many recognize the winter solstice, which falls on Saturday, Dec. 21, as the first true day of winter in the northern hemisphere, according to the Farmer's Almanac .

The first day of winter is Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, at 3:21 a.m. Central Time. This is also the shortest day of the year, but the longest night, according to the Farmers Almanac.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. at or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at