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Northern Lights Watch: Where will the clear skies be in Michigan tonight

S.Wright3 months ago

Space weather forecasters are still projecting the likelihood of widespread Northern Lights tonight across the northern U.S. Let’s look at where skies will be clear enough to see the Northern Lights when they start to dance across the sky.

The targeted time period of Northern Lights is midnight to 4 a.m. tonight. Remember the energy from the sun is racing toward Earth. Forecasters only have one data point now to update the timing. When the sun’s energy in the form of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) passes the next observing instrument we only have one hour before the energy hits our atmosphere. In other words, the timing of Northern Lights is not very accurate. Watch your Facebook friends in the north. Watch the Michigan Weather Facebook group . These are two places where early sightings on Northern Lights are posted.

Certainly we are on the right path to having some clear skies by starting our Thursday with sunshine over a lot of Michigan.

We will have patches of clouds move in through the day. We aren’t lucky enough to have a weather pattern with entirely clear skies over all of Michigan tonight.

The quick suggestion is heading into the northeast quarter of Lower Michigan. Some other areas will have occasional clearing, but not reliable enough to make you go to that location.

Here’s the computer model I like best for tonight. You are seeing the total cloud cover forecast from 11 p.m. to 4 a.m.

Cloud cover forecast from 11 p.m. Thursday, November 30 to 4 a.m. Friday, December 1NOAA

You get the idea that the southern half of Lower Michigan will be too cloudy to see Northern Lights. Parts of northern Lower Michigan will have clear skies. The Upper Peninsula will be split with clouds in the east and clear skies in the west.

Remember that the most important thing is to be out in the dark skies away from city lights.

Here are a few specific times in the cloud forecast.

If the Northern Lights do develop early, as in this evening to midnight, we might be able to see them as far south as the Saginaw area, Bay City, Midland and the Thumb. Areas of sky around the Grand Traverse region may be clear enough but certainly the northeast part of Lower Michigan will have the most clearing.

The forecast below is for midnight tonight. If I had to pick a sure-bet area for clear sky it would be Gladwin, West Branch, Au Gres, Tawas, Oscoda and Alpena.

Total cloud cover forecast at midnight Friday, December 1.NOAA

At 2 a.m. we should still have a lot of clearing over northeast Lower. The sure-bet cities mentioned above will still be the places to be at 2 a.m. tonight.

Total cloud cover forecast at 2 a.m. Friday, December 1.NOAA

We continue with the same clear areas through 4 a.m. Friday morning. Also notice that southern Michigan doesn’t clear tonight.

Total cloud cover forecast at 4 a.m. Friday, December 1.NOAA

If you are in southern Michigan, get on I-75 and drive north to Gladwin or West Branch. Be there by 9 p.m. The timing of Northern Lights can be off by several hours. Positioning yourself outside of West Branch will give you a spot that is dark and could be just fine for seeing Northern Lights. If it’s a touch cloudy you’d only be an hour away from Tawas or Oscoda.

Tawas and Oscoda, on Lake Huron, would be the best places to be if you want to go that far. The very northern tip of the Thumb may not be a bad place to be either.

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