Packers vs. Lions, by the numbers

The vibes around the Green Bay Packers have drastically improved over the past three weeks. With a win over the hapless Brett Rypien-Rams, a competitive loss to the currently seventh seed Steelers, and a nice offensive performance that led to a victory over the eternally Chargersing L.A. Chargers. The rubber is going to meet the road over the next couple of weeks now, though. Before having some reprieve against the Giants on December 11th, the Packers will take on two teams vying for supremacy in their respective conferences in Detroit and Kansas City. If the Packers offense wants to show that it is making real steps forward, the next two weeks are a big chance to prove it, especially after Detroit was the team that started their spiral earlier this fall.

That Detroit Lions defense has been struggling of late, though. Only four teams have allowed more points-per-game since the Lions kicked the Packers’ team in Week 4. Despite, that the Lions are currently 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings .

NFL points per game allowed from Week 5 on:





...

— Justis Mosqueda November 20, 2023 Points are a bit of a messy way to see how a defense is performing, to be fair. A lot of elements outside of their immediate control impact those numbers. Pace, turnovers from the offense, mishaps on special teams, and sometimes just facing a great slate of offenses can all impact those numbers. At least when it comes to the slate of offenses faced, I don’t think that can be used as an excuse for Detroit. In that run, they have faced the Bears, Raiders, Buccaneers , and Panthers who rank 23rd, 28th, 14th, and 30th, respectively, in offensive EPA-per-play. Even Tampa actually has a negative EPA-per-play on the season. These aren’t good offenses. They did get absolutely steamrolled by Baltimore, who ranks seventh, and the eighth-ranked Chargers put up 38. Over the last month, in particular, the Lions' defense does not look anything like the group that decimated Green Bay in Lambeau.

During this time frame, the Lions rank 25th in EPA-per-play allowed and 31st in success rate. The run defense has been solid, but the Lions are getting beat up through the air, to the tune of a +.105 EPA-per-dropback allowed. That is a worse mark than the Packers who have been putting out a MASH unit of defensive backs for much of that time. The issues are primarily in coverage. Aidan Hutchinson is PFF’s top-graded EDGE defender over this time frame and ranks eighth in total pressures. Defensive tackles Alim McNeil, John Cominsky, and Benito Jones also supply solid pressure up front.

Rookie linebacker Jack Campbell has really been struggling in just about every aspect right now, but particularly in coverage where he has one of the worst receiving yards per snap allowed. This could present an opportunity for the rookie tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft to have some production. Fellow rookie Brian Branch has been quite solid and will be matched up with Green Bay’s de-facto WR1 Jayden Reed more often than not. After having a big week against a Chargers team that really struggles with slot receivers, this will be a very interesting matchup of rookies.

On the offensive side of the ball, turnovers were the name of the game against Chicago for the Lions. They lost the turnover margin by three and still won by five. While the Lions defense has fallen off, their offense, even despite the turnovers, has not. Since the last meeting, Detroit is fifth in offensive efficiency and third in success rate. The passing game is dinged on a per-play basis by all the turnovers against Chicago, but on a down-to-down basis, is still one of the better units in the league. The Lions running game has really gotten going, though. Only the Ravens , eternally boosted by Lamar Jackson, have had a better running game over the past several weeks. If that sent chills down your spine, it should, because the Packers' run defense remains a major problem. Both runningbacks for the Lions are very solidly positive when it comes to RYOE.

Pretty impressive what Warren has done despite a passing game that doesn't exactly put fear into defenses pic.twitter.com/df32nC903f

— Computer Cowboy November 20, 2023 The Lions' offensive line is a major asset for them as well. Going into last week, they ranked eighth in Ben Baldwin’s run-blocking composite metric and seventh in the pass-blocking composite metric.

Run blocking Eagles tweet pic.twitter.com/OPSgEnReze

— Computer Cowboy November 15, 2023 Composite of quantified pass protection through week 10

Why does ESPN hate the Jaguars,, pic.twitter.com/jQ4UQNuhW9

— Computer Cowboy November 15, 2023 The Lions' offense is just a really bad matchup for the Packers' defense, even at the best of times. The Lions are more than happy to churn up yards all the way down the field. Their running game is a legitimate plus, and their passing game generally minimizes negative plays by keeping Jared Goff clean and allowing him to work the ball to solid weapons. Now, factoring in all the injuries the Packers have on the defensive side of the ball, the Packers are almost certainly going to need some good turnover luck to slow down this offense.

If the Packers are to win this game, it’s almost certainly because the offense continues, and even accelerates the progression it has been on. The Lions' defense looks vulnerable, but it will require a better performance from the non-Zach Tom members of the offensive line than we have routinely seen. A big week for the left tackle carousel of Rasheed Walker and Yosh Nijman, and a big week for Jon Runyan Jr, or perhaps Sean Rhyan, if the staff is finally ready to pull that plug.