Penn State bowl projections: Which New Year’s Six game is most likely for the Nittany Lions?

We’ll know for sure where Penn State is going bowling in a few days.

The College Football Playoff committee will release its final rankings on Sunday afternoon, announcing which four teams will reach the national semifinals and which matchups will make up the remaining New Year’s Six bowls.

Penn State is expected to make a NY6 game after securing a 10-2 record with its win over Michigan State. But where will the Nittany Lions play? Let’s look at this week’s projections.

Peach Bowl vs. Missouri

Peach Bowl vs. Tulane

The Peach Bowl is looking like the most likely destination. The storied game, held on Dec. 30 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, has never hosted Penn State in its 55-year history. Penn State has played in the Fiesta and Cotton recently. And the Peach Bowl’s president is a Pennsylvania native who has expressed interest in hosting Penn State in the past.

Would Penn State play a fellow Power Five program? Or, like it did in the 2019 Cotton Bowl, would it get stuck facing the highest-ranked Group of Five team?

If it’s the Peach Bowl, my guess is they’ll want to pair Penn State with an SEC team to create an electric environment at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mizzou is having a phenomenal season and would be a worthy opponent. But don’t rule out the possibility of Alabama if the Crimson Tide lose to Georgia in the SEC championship game this weekend.

Cotton Bowl vs. Texas

This would be a heck of a game. Obviously, it would require Texas missing out on the CFP. The Longhorns are still alive if they win the Big 12 title and if Florida State and Alabama lose their respective conference championships. Penn State and Texas haven’t faced each other since the 1997 Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl vs. Washington

This would be intriguing; the 2020 Michael Penix Jr. two-point conversion stories would write themselves. But I find it hard to believe this is the direction the committee and bowl executives would go if the Huskies don’t make the CFP. Washington, set to join the Big Ten next year, is on Penn State’s 2024 schedule. This is also a rematch of the 2017 Fiesta Bowl.

Non-NY6

However unlikely, there is a scenario in which Penn State is left out of the NY6. Andy Staples, a national writer at on3 and formerly of The Athletic and Sports Illustrated, believes that the Nittany Lions are going to be left out in the cold. Staples expects the CFP committee to “seriously reevaluate” the resumes of four teams: Penn State, Missouri, Ole Miss and Oklahoma. In a situation where those four teams are vying for the last two NY6 at-large bids, Staples wrote that the committee will take one of the SEC teams and Oklahoma over Penn State.

Mizzou was No. 9 in last week’s rankings. Penn State, Ole Miss and Oklahoma were Nos. 11, 12 and 13. Over the weekend, Penn State beat Michigan State by 42 while Oklahoma beat TCU by 24. I don’t see why the committee would change its mind now. But you never know.

If Penn State misses out on the NY6, the Citrus Bowl in Orlando would be thrilled to host the Nittany Lions. Penn State would play an SEC team, likely LSU or Ole Miss.