Pennsylvania counties to watch during the presidential election
As it seems to have been since the beginning of the 2024 presidential election cycle, the nation's attention is fixated on Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral college votes.
The commonwealth has already been subjected to more political advertising than any other state in U.S. election history. Ad buys for presidential candidates topped more than $600 million in Pennsylvania this cycle – and when combined with House, Senate and local races, spending on campaign ads has surpassed $1 billion in a state for the first time ever.
From the collar counties outside Philadelphia to the suburban and rural areas to the northeast and northwest, several regions of the state could be barometers for how races at the top of the ticket will lean.
Democrats still hold a lead in total registrations across the state, but Republicans have made gains statewide in voter registration, narrowing the Democratic advantage that was once more than 1 million in 2016 to under 300,000. Based on population, the cities of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are Democratic strongholds, and the party has the advantage in the Southeastern Pennsylvania collar counties. Still, the GOP has the advantage in 54 of the state's 67 counties.
Here are six counties worth keeping an eye on:
The collar counties around Philadelphia are regarded as key to Harris' path to victory in Pennsylvania. In Berks County, Republicans hold a sizable voter registration lead – roughly 3,500 voters – over Democrats. The region's Latino population has also received extensive coverage this election cycle, with remarks from former President Donald Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden making waves in the final weeks of the campaign. In Reading, where Trump is holding a rally on Monday, roughly two-thirds of the city's population is Latino.
President Joe Biden defeated Trump in Reading by about 46 percentage points in 2020. However, Hillary Clinton did even better in 2016 when she beat Trump by 62 percentage points.
Similar to Berks County, Bucks is seen as a major indicator of where suburban and rural voters may land. Biden won the county by more than 4 points in 2020 but Republicans have seen more recent voter registrations lean their way, making this one of the most closely watched areas of the cycle.
Both campaigns underscored the region's importance by the number of stops each candidate and their surrogates made in the county this fall. Within the last month, Harris held an event on Oct. 16 in the area, speaking with Republicans at Washington Crossing State Park, while Trump had a photo op at a McDonald's fryer in Feasterville on Oct. 20.
Hillary Clinton won the county by fewer than 2,700 votes in 2016, when she lost Pennsylvania, while Biden won by more than 17,000 votes on his way to an 80,000-vote win statewide. Even Gov. Josh Shapiro, while on the campaign trail for Harris, said Bucks is "the swingiest of all swing counties of all swing states."
In the Capital region of the commonwealth, what was once a red county could be shifting blue in the near future.
Republicans still hold a registration advantage of more than 1,000 in Cumberland County, but a high turnout for the 10th congressional district matchup between Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson could change things for the area that Trump won by double digits in 2020.
The definition of a bellwether county fits Erie to a "T" – and it's true again in 2024. Erie has voted for the statewide winner in 18 of the last 19 presidential elections, including every presidential election since 1992.
Democrats hold a slim voter registration lead over Republicans, despite recent gains by the GOP, in a county that Biden won by just 1 point in 2020.
The Lehigh Valley has been another hotbed for presidential candidates, polling and prognostications. In Northampton County, where Biden won by just 0.7 percentage points in 2020, Republicans posted a 712-voter advantage over Democrats in recent registration numbers.
Northampton has also picked the overall winner of each presidential election since 2008, flipping red to Trump in 2016 before going to Biden narrowly four years later. Like Erie, Northampton County is a "boomerang" district – one that voted for Obama twice, Trump and then Biden – that both parties see as crucial to winning the commonwealth.
Republicans have continued to make gains in the county, which includes President Joe Biden's birthplace and the surrounding Scranton area – showing a nearly 3,000-voter registration lead in 2024. The GOP overtook Democrats in registrations in an area that Trump won twice by double-digit margins.
However, Democrats like Biden and U.S. Sen. John Fetterman have shown an ability to make inroads among predominantly white working-class areas in the area – and it's a voting bloc Harris needs to carry the county and state overall.
