Red scare: Incumbent Fischer survives Osborn in Nebraska U.S. Senate race
U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., faces nonpartisan candidate Dan Osborn in Nebraska's Senate race this fall. (Candidate photos courtesy of their campaigns. Capitol photo by Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom)
OMAHA — Nebraska U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer survived an unexpectedly close race Tuesday with registered nonpartisan Dan Osborn, leaning on her GOP base to secure a third term.
The Associated Press called the race for Fischer late Tuesday. She led by nearly 4 percentage points at 11:30 p.m., with more rural votes coming in. Some early voting ballots returned on Election Day and provisional ballots still need to be counted, but those are unlikely to change the result.
Fischer had voiced confidence during the campaign that Nebraskans would reward her willingness to prioritize their needs, including agriculture and infrastructure, and would worry less about sound bites or national news.
On Tuesday, she said Nebraskans "still vote for candidates who share their values."
Her defenders had worried that her preference for doing work behind-the-scenes to craft and pass legislation, rather than spending more time promoting herself and her work, cost her with some Nebraskans who follow politics only at election time.
"Nearly $30 million, that's the amount of money out-of-state Democrats spent trying to buy a Nebraska Senate seat," Fischer said. "It did not happen. ... They wasted their money."
For several months during the campaign, Fischer would not acknowledge her opponent, rejecting polls that indicated a close race as being flawed and touting her own internal polling showing a big lead.
By late Tuesday, the race appeared headed toward the narrowest margin for any Nebraska GOP Senate candidate since 2000, when Republican Attorney General Don Stenberg lost to former Gov. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., 51%-49%.
Osborn, an Omaha union leader known for his work helping to lead the Omaha Kellogg's strike in 2021, put a scare into Fischer's campaign.
He did so largely by painting himself as Nebraska's version of Pennsylvania's U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, a gruff, working-class guy interested in focusing Congress on kitchen-table issues.
Osborn avoided giving specific answers about his views on many policy questions until late into the campaign, saying he preferred to hear more from Nebraskans about what they want.
He hammered Fischer for increasing her personal wealth while in office and described her in ads and on the stump as a typical politician beholden to the whims of her largest donors.
The Osborn crowd went from upbeat, swaying along with a live country musician, to somber more numbers came in around 10:30 pm., showing Fischer pulling ahead for the first time all night. Osborn hadn't yet spoken at his campaign party as of 11:30 p.m.
Fischer served two terms in the Nebraska Legislature before being elected to the Senate in 2012. She served on the Valentine school board before that. Her family owns a ranch near Valentine. She and her husband have moved to Lincoln.
She and her surrogates said Osborn was partly to blame for Kellogg's announcing the Omaha plant was slated for closure. The union's current leaders rejected the idea that Osborn was to blame.
Fischer labeled him a Democrat in sheep's clothing. She and her supporters spent millions on ads seeking to tie Osborn to liberal leaders including U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont.
State and local election records, however, showed Osborn registered as a nonpartisan since at least 2004.
Osborn has said he personally aligned more with Democrats before 2016, but like many in organized labor, he has welcomed the Republican Party becoming more open to union members.
The race brought millions in outside money and interest to a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats roughly 2 to 1 and a quarter of registrants align with neither party.
One hint of Fischer's vulnerability: Ending Spending, an outside group tied to Marlene and Joe Ricketts, which helped Fischer win office in 2012, jumped into the 2024 race after polling indicated potential trouble.
Another sign: The National Republican Senatorial Committee also stepped in to boost her campaign. That group typically spends money on tough races in battleground states and open seats.
One of Fischer's biggest challenges was shoring up the Republican base at a time when some of them in state and county GOPs spent months divided over supporting the federal delegation.
Local political observers said Fischer smartly emphasized her GOP roots and improved her chances of winning by persuading former President Donald Trump to cut an ad on her behalf.
Fischer, like U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., had frustrated Trump by voting for a bipartisan infrastructure bill under President Joe Biden. She had also criticized some of his comments in 2016. But Trump ultimately endorsed her.
Polling showed Osborn securing a larger slice of the rural 3rd District electorate than most Democrats have in statewide races. He also polled well in Omaha and Lincoln.
Some Democrats said Osborn hurt himself by initially seeking and later declining the endorsement of the Nebraska Democratic Party and some third parties. Osborn and his supporters also worked to keep other names off the ballot, from third parties.
It was part of what Fischer and Osborn both described as a "political science experiment" of a campaign. Osborn ran neither left nor right and would not say which party he'd caucus with if he won.
For Fischer, the win comes at a time of war in the Middle East and Europe, when she says the nation needs her experience as a senior member on the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Responding to Osborn criticism that she broke her promise to serve only two terms Fischer said she did so after coming to realize the importance of seniority after serving in the Senate. Osborn pledged to serve only two terms.
Nebraska Examiner Senior Reporter Cindy Gonzalez contributed to this report.
