Seattle Kraken 2024-25 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn

Disappointed with a 19-point drop from the highs of 2022-23, the Kraken spent big this summer in hopes the team can get back on track.

While that expenditure does lead to an improvement going into the season, it's likely not enough to find Seattle on solid playoff footing. A new coach might be able to fix that, as could some internal improvement.

As things stand now, though, the Kraken are firmly on the outside looking in.

The projection

After underwhelming in Year 1 and exceeding expectations in Year 2, the Kraken found their level in Year 3 — it just wasn't a very good one. This is a middling team, and that's where they're expected to land in 2024-25.

Seattle will likely be right in the thick of the playoff race all season and should, at the very least, improve on last year's 81 points. The Kraken eclipse 82 points in three-quarters of our simulations and have a strong chance of being competitive as a result.

Unfortunately, they also land outside the playoffs in three-quarters of our simulations, where the best bet for Seattle is a spot in the league's mushy middle. No man's land.

That's a particularly unideal spot for a capped-out team that's already short on star power. The trump card for the Kraken is a new coach that may give the team an unexpected and much-needed bump in the right direction.

To get to the playoffs, that bump will have to be fairly substantial, considering there are 10 other teams in the West that look superior on paper.

The big question

Can Dan Bylsma coax more offense out of a deep, but star-less team?

There's some amount of irony in the way things ultimately shook out for Dave Hakstol, fired after three seasons as the Kraken's coach. Year 1 was unimpressive, to be sure — especially after an expansion draft that seemed to hit in several important spots — but no reason loomed larger than the goalies. The tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger , the thinking went, would at least keep Seattle's floor relatively high.

Driedger, of course, couldn't stay healthy, and Grubauer, removed from the Avalanche 's system and faced with a workload that he couldn't handle, derailed. The end result was a mediocre five-on-five team with worst-in-class goaltending that deserved better than 60 points, but probably not by much. If you were to bet after those first 82 games on what would eventually lead to Hakstol's downfall, smart money would've been on his goalies.

Fast forward to the spring of 2024, though, and it's clear that, in fact, the team's offensive stagnation is what did in Hakstol. We know because GM Ron Francis told us. "Last year our offense certainly fell off," Francis said at the press conference introduction of his new coach, "so we need to find a way to tweak some things in the offensive zone to get offense back."

Now, was Seattle's regression from Year 2 to 3 predictable? Absolutely. If they'd again shot 10.37 percent as a team, rather than the nearly three-point dip they actually experienced, Hakstol would almost certainly still be their coach. Alas, they fell from the top of the league in 2022-23 to 29th last season. Individually, Jared McCann fell from 19 percent to 13.4, Matty Beniers from 16.2 to 11,4, Eeli Tolvanen from 16.5 to 10.5 — and the list goes on. Can't live on shooting percentage, can't live without it.

The Kraken's year-over-year decline wasn't just the product of bad luck, though. A lack of high-end playmakers, something they adequately overcame in Year 2, came back to bite them in a very real way. According to Corey Sznjader's tracking data, they averaged two fewer scoring chances per 60, enough to take them from above to below average. One possible cause for the dip was a lack of effectiveness once they gained the offensive zone. Seattle was a decent rush team in Year 2, in terms of shot generation. In Year 3, they gained the zone at a similar rate, but the opportunities didn't seem to follow. The question, really, is whether the systems or the talent level is primarily to blame.

It's worth noting that the last team to fire Hakstol, the 2018-19 Flyers , weren't particularly heinous on offense and didn't experience any real performance bump after making a midseason change. They actually declined at five-on-five in terms of production (2.65 goals per 60, 10th in the league) and process (2.39 expected goals per 60, 17th). That's not to say moving on from Hakstol was the wrong move — his teams were notoriously streaky, and his handling of young players was questionable — but putrid goaltending and a brutal core of defensemen played a role, too. He might not be a great NHL coach, but he's also not rubber-stamp replaceable.

Is Bylsma an upgrade? His most recent coaching job suggests that he might be. Coachella Valley scored more goals than any other AHL team last season, with nine players, nearly none of them on Seattle's list of top prospects, scoring 15 or more. Whether that ability to maximize offensive talent translates to the NHL is a fair question, but Bylsma's success with the Firebirds is still very real.

If nothing else, Seattle's best-case scenario is clear, Bylsma retains the core values that helped him win the Stanley Cup and Jack Adams Award in Pittsburgh — an ability to set culture and connect to players, a general commitment to fast-paced hockey — and applies what he learned in the coaching wilderness after flaming out in Buffalo, at one point taking a job as an AHL assistant. He's certainly set up for a fascinating second act.

Seattle's worst-case scenario, though, is just as clear — improved tactics fail to overcome an increasingly clear lack of offensive game-breakers. That's not a problem that a coaching change can fix.

The wild card

Is Shane Wright ready for the big leagues?

When Wright surprisingly slid to No. 4 overall in the 2022 draft, it seemed like a draft steal for the Kraken. But two years later, he has yet to hit star status at the NHL level. Or even make the NHL for that matter.

It's easy to get impatient with a top prospect's development — especially when they are drafted as highly as No. 4. Players usually are drafted in top slots for two reasons: 1) their elite skill set and 2) a shorter timeline for reaching impact status at the NHL level. No. 4 picks generally deliver about nine wins across their first seven seasons, and Wright's first two seasons post-draft have primarily been spent in the AHL.

That isn't unusual for a player drafted in his position — just look at other recent No. 4 picks. Lucas Raymond played his draft-plus one season in Sweden, while Mitch Marner did in the OHL. Cale Makar played another two seasons at UMass after the Avalanche drafted him in 2017.

So there is still reason for optimism, even if Wright didn't hit the ground running in the NHL in his draft-plus one and two seasons. Last year's progress in the AHL is a big reason why.

Wright put up 22 goals and 47 points for the Firebirds in 59 games last year and followed up with 13 points in 12 playoff games. The coaches who helped him progress in the AHL are now with the NHL club. So maybe that puts him on track to becoming a star at the NHL level. That's exactly what Seattle needs.

The strengths

With the right tactical adjustments, the Kraken may be able to get back to their balanced approach and keep challenging how we think about star power. A lot of that depends on how players respond to the new-look coaching staff, including Beniers.

Beniers has the chops to be the franchise cornerstone and star talent this roster craves. He made a strong first impression in his Calder Trophy-winning rookie season. While last season was a step back offensively, it wasn't a total loss either.

Beniers' ability to retrieve pucks in the defensive zone and break the puck out with control stood out among forwards league-wide. If the offense can blossom around that progress back in his own zone, it could put him right in the conversation with some of the best two-way centers in the league.

The Kraken's top line doesn't quite stack up league-wide but generally is still pretty effective. Their leading trio of Beniers, Jordan Eberle and Jared McCann should have had more success last season after earning about 55 percent of the expected goal share. But their puck luck was brutal, with a lowly on-ice shooting percentage of 6.7.

Seattle is known for its depth, and that shows here with five of six bottom six slots grading out well above average. The average bottom six comes in 34 goals below average; Seattle's sits at minus-22, sixth in the league. That starts with Yanni Gourde , who brings experience and versatility. Whether at center or wing, Gourde can be relied on to thrive in a high-pressure environment, in any situation on either end of the ice. He's an aggressive forechecker who can come up with timely scoring.

Oliver Bjorkstrand is another utility winger who brings a shoot-first approach to the Kraken. His shot quality dipped from 2022-23, but it didn't show in his production. He does a lot of the little things on the third line, from his ability to retrieve pucks to help the Kraken chip play from zone to zone. His strong forechecking helps the team maintain possession.

Gourde and Bjorkstrand, along with the likes of Beniers, Eberle and Eeli Tolvanen, all bolster the team's Defensive Rating up to a plus-13, which ranks 12th in the league.

A healthy Andre Burakovsky could help take the bottom nine up a notch with a bounce-back performance, too. He has been battling different ailments since the end of the 2022-23 season, and smaller absences last season made it even tougher to get back on track. Just his shooting percentage rebounding from a career-low rate of 7.6 last season would boost his scoring, so there should be some hope for the Kraken that he can be more productive this season.

If Wright is ready to rip at the NHL level, that's another plus for the Kraken. The more the team can lean into their four-line approach, the better this team's chance of success is, since the roster just isn't constructed to be top-heavy. In that sense, the actual placements here don't matter — whichever players end up in the top six might struggle to win matchups, while the bottom six makes up the difference.

What should help elevate this forward group is more offense from the blue line. With the Brandon Montour signing, the Kraken should get more of a spark from their second pair. Montour can help lead the rush to push the Kraken into the offensive zone and generate scoring chances. Coming into the season healthy, unlike last year, should help him get going quicker, too.

While Montour may not be a true No. 1, he's a solid enough No. 2 — someone who can thrive on a top pair playing with a lead dog, or lead his own second pair, as he did in Florida. There are some concerns with the signing — like whether scoring 73 points in 2022-23 was reflective of his true ability, or whether he can hold his own defensively — but he should still provide a major boost to Seattle's back end. That may end up being a catalyst for more production up front, given what the team was working with on that front last season.

Behind Montour, Ryker Evans and William Borgen should be a capable third pair in Seattle. Evans impressed last season as a steady defensive presence. He doesn't have a ton of experience with Borgen, but in their very limited time together last season (approximately 35 minutes of play), they meshed well together. Now, the two just have to show that last season's stint as a pair was a glimpse of what is to come.

The weaknesses

As much potential as there may be in Seattle for star talent to develop and emerge, no one is at that caliber right now. Their balanced approach may have led them to the postseason in 2022, but it helps to have a few game-breakers lead the way.

A lot of the Kraken's hopes this season rely on the impact of coaching to transform this roster, but there is no guarantee a new-look bench alone can save this team. Maybe coaching can improve a weak power play, but the Kraken could still feel the limitations of their roster, even with key players bouncing back or taking leaps forward.

One of those leaps forward has to come from Beniers. His shooting percentage slipping is just one of a few reasons why his scoring dropped by 20 points over the last year. Team-wide power play struggles contributed, too, but so did dips at five-on-five from his shot and scoring chance reaction, his playmaking, and even his forechecking. That knocked him down from 4A in Player Tiers to 5C this year.

On Beniers' wing, McCann wasn't able to repeat his 40-goal heights of 2022-23 without an inflated shooting percentage. Scoring closer to the 30-goal range is still welcome in Seattle, but there were some dips in his scoring-chance creation and passing last season. That puts more emphasis on the players around him for support.

The second line could be a real weakness for Seattle, with their combined minus-7 Offensive Rating. Jaden Schwartz and Eeli Tolvanen can make up a solid supporting cast, but neither one can drive their own line. That responsibility may be on offseason signing Chandler Stephenson , who doesn't look up to the task after his last season.

Stephenson was an underrated gem through much of his time in Vegas, but last season there were major red flags below the surface beyond his decreased scoring. Not only did Vegas generate less with Stephenson on the ice, but they gave up even more back. He wasn't as effective in transition and didn't have the same skating speed of years past, either. Stephenson has work to do to prove that last year was just an off season, and now he has to do it without Mark Stone (or any winger near his caliber).

In all, Seattle's top six comes out to a combined plus-9 Net Rating — the third-worst mark in the league. The league average there is plus-34 which speaks to the issues of the team's depth approach. The Kraken may come in 12 goals better than average through their bottom six, but also come up 25 goals short with their top six. Their lack of star power simply doesn't add up to an above-average forward group.

There's also the question of whether they have that on the back end. Last year, Vince Dunn showed that his 2022-23 breakout season wasn't a fluke and scored at an impressive rate, but many within the league remain unconvinced that he's a true No. 1 on a playoff team. By Net Rating, he lands right on the cusp: average for his role, but well behind some of the league's very best. His work with the puck in all three zones, as tracked by Corey Sznajder, doesn't sizzle either. It's no surprise that his standing in this year's Player Tiers tumbled from Tier 4A to 4C. There's also the question of Montour usurping Dunn's role on the top power play, which would limit his offensive value.

One of the primary reasons some are skeptical about Dunn is whether he can handle matchup minutes. Last year, that burden fell to Jamie Oleksiak and William Borgen, but with the way the top four is set up this year, it may instead come down to one of the top two pairs. That would put a tougher burden on one of Dunn or Montour, which neither may be able to handle. Given how weak offensively both Oleksiak and Adam Larsson are, the option to utilize a full-out shutdown pair (Oleksiak-Larsson) and offensive pair (Dunn-Montour) probably isn't advisable.

That's the issue with having four seemingly one-dimensional defenders in the top four: the balance works great, but offers diminishing returns relative to the best teams. Seattle's top four is obviously improved this season with the addition of Montour, and it's possible that some quick chemistry raises everyone's level. But a combined plus-9 Net Rating does fall short of the West's top eight teams at plus-24 on average.

Seattle's goaltending tandem could be a strength behind that group, there just isn't total certainty behind that. Neither Joey Daccord nor Philipp Grubauer stack up well relative to their roles. Daccord just doesn't have a very long track record, while Grubauer's resume is littered with inconsistency over the last five years.

As it stands now, the Kraken will need one of these weaknesses to go their way to make the playoffs — whether that's a star breakthrough, a strengthened back end, or consistent goaltending. Right now we have more questions than answers, which usually leaves a team reeling in the middle.

The best case

Bylsma succeeds in getting more offense out of the group, namely with big breakouts from Beniers and Wright, who start to provide the elite one-two punch many envisioned when they were drafted. With the team's depth and another standout season from Daccord, the Kraken get back to the 100-point plateau.

The worst case

Stephenson and Montour's contracts look immediately onerous, and the rest of the group continues to sag around them. The depth is enough to win games, but without any stars on the team, the Kraken put up another middling season.

The bottom line

It's not quite time to bail on the plan in Seattle — building an organization from the ground up takes time, cliche as it sounds — but the ship has sprung some leaks. Until a true star or two emerges, it'll be tough to take them seriously as a contender. Or even a playoff team.

How the model works

How the model adjusts for context

Understanding projection uncertainty

Evolving Hockey

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.

(Photo of Shane Wright: Steph Chambers / )