Soil moisture conditions expected to worsen across state
While many areas of the state received badly needed rains weeks ago, most of the benefits to agricultural producers are evaporating due to less than adequate rain and higher-than-normal temperatures statewide.
The previous rains were a boon for agricultural producers and helped with some crop plantings and establishment, but soil moisture levels in many parts of the state have deteriorated since, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
This reversal of fortune and shifting weather patterns means growing conditions through winter could be subpar for some cool-season crops like wheat for grazing. And drier soils coupled with a drier and warmer fall and winter weather pattern could spell less than optimal planting conditions for next spring.
Mark Welch, AgriLife Extension economist for grain marketing in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said the weather has been transitioning back to a La Niña pattern with drier and warmer than normal weather that will likely last through the coming winter.
"Unfortunately, at the current time dry soil conditions are on the increase from the Southern Panhandle, Rolling Plains and across North Texas just as we are planting and getting ready to plant the 2025 wheat crop," he said.
Impacts grain crops
Welch said the impact of the current drought and stressful conditions throughout Texas have also greatly affected corn and sorghum.
"While final statewide production numbers are not in, we began to see a much earlier-than-normal start to harvest, which is generally not a good sign," Welch said. "Sorghum harvest in Texas at the end of June was 27% and the National Agricultural Statistics Service had never before reported that early of a sorghum harvest."
By Sept. 8, 75% of Texas corn had been harvested. Welch said that was the earliest date to reach that benchmark going back at least 40 years.
"The current estimate of the Texas sorghum yield is 53 bushels per acre, better than the 49 last year but below the 58 bushel 10-year average," Welch said. "And Texas corn is estimated at 121 bushels, just below the 122 bushels per acre last year and below the 126-bushel average."
The percent harvested for both sorghum and corn was lower than normal as well, and Welch said the lower yields were associated with stressful growing conditions.
From wet to dry
Emi Kimura, Ph.D., associate professor and AgriLife Extension agronomist and peanut specialist in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences based in Vernon, said the soil is very dry in her region after receiving zero rain in August and less than 1 inch in September.
Kimura said dryland cotton is under severe stress due to the lack of water and high August temperatures.
"Although the temperature cooled down a little in September, we still had days that were above 100 degrees," she said. "We are waiting for rain before planting the wheat."
Reagan Noland, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist and associate professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences in San Angelo, said most of West Texas was extremely dry through August, but did receive some good rainfall in early September.
"The rain helped to germinate volunteer wheat and weeds for growers," he said. "Some growers were able to plant and establish fall grazing crops, like wheat or oats, with this moisture."
However, he said, at this time soil conditions are variable across the region and while some areas have adequate moisture to plant, others are already once again too dry for planting.
Larry Stein, Ph.D., professor and AgriLife Extension horticulture specialist in the Department of Horticultural Sciences based in Uvalde, said the southwestern area of the state has received hit and miss rains, with some beneficial rain falling in the Winter Garden region.
"After this brief cooling period, the daytime temperatures for both highs and lows have been higher than usual," he said. "We have had 95 degrees or higher temperatures, and daily high temperatures have been several degrees warmer than what is typical for this time of year."
However, Stein said the earlier rain and brief cool-down did allow for better stand establishment on cabbage with spinach, greens and onion plantings expected to begin soon.
"The scattered rains did allow for some pre-watering of fields, which should help stand establishment for these crops," he said. "In addition, the landscape looks better with some greening and improved forages that will help livestock producers."
But make no mistake, he said, the drought is still lingering in this area.
In one of the few bright spots for soil conditions in the state, recent rain in the Lower Rio Grande Valley helped leach salts in vegetable fields, provided citrus groves some relief and pastures and hay operations with much-needed rainfall.
Juan Anciso, Ph.D., professor and AgriLife Extension vegetable specialist in the Department of Horticultural Sciences based in Weslaco, said the rain should also help fall vegetable planting in South Texas, which is underway with cabbage and some leafy greens.
"However, the availability of irrigation water is still the biggest concern this upcoming vegetable season will face due to soil moisture conditions," he said. "Some growers have enough irrigation water and others do not."
Anciso expects vegetable acreage in the Lower Rio Grande Valley will be reduced compared to last year, in large part due to irrigation water concerns.
"The usual September rains provided some relief locally but have done very little for the two reservoirs in the watershed area as these have been relatively low," he said.
