Thad’s Three Things: Bills vs. Dolphins

Three speculations about how the Bills will take apart the Dolphins... this time...

Slow And Unsteady

Rule number one when facing Miami is always to prevent the big play. The Dolphins offense, as has been beaten to death since Mike McDaniel took over, is equipped with a relay team full of weapons that can go for 50 yards on any snap. The best approach is forcing Miami to go on 13 or 15 play drives. Back in week two, the Dolphins couldn't do it without shooting themselves in the foot. Often.

Sean McDermott's zone-based defense is already built to smother explosive plays. The Buffalo game plan for the first round of this rivalry was as ruthless as it was simplistic. Drop safeties deep and force the Dolphins to live in the intermediate game. It's the same style of defense that has turned, to some degree, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes into the masters of very efficient run-first offenses.

Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas were a big part of that win in Miami two months ago. Benford is a question mark to play this week, but I would not be worried. Whether it's new Dolphins tormentor Ja'Marcus Ingram or Kaiir Elam, McDermott and Bobby Babich don't ask anything extraordinary from the secondary. Do your job. Keep things in front and make the Dolphins stay competent for a dozen plays in a row.

Von Not Vital?

Von Miller is eligible to return from suspension this week, but I'm not sure how much the Bills need him. The Dolphins get the ball out so fast in the passing game, it negates a lot of what Miller brings as a speed rusher. It's a point Miller hammered home before the first meeting with the Dolphins this year. It might not be a coincidence that Miller's sack in Miami came essentially the moment Tua Tagovailoa left the game.

What the Bills do need this week is their tall guys. A.J. Epenesa and Greg Rousseau each stand 6-6. Neither is likely to reach a QB as fast as Miller, but both can get in passing lanes and make life miserable for 6-foot-1 Tua. The Bills spent some time Wednesday working specifically on getting hands up and knocking passes down. Tagovailoa was top ten in batted passes last year and has three balls knocked down in just three games so far this year (one per game is a high rate of batted passes).

Deflections can kill drives and create turnovers almost as much as sacks can. Miller is certainly a good player to have in the lineup, but I wouldn't expect a ton from him in this matchup.

Fish Pre-Squished

The Dolphins defense enters this game in rough shape. Top pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips are already out with long term injuries. Phillips is done for the year.

Underrated defensive tackle Zach Sieler suffered a fractured orbital bone in practice last week (something that sounds decidedly less fun than the typical football injury). He is going to miss a second straight game. Nickel corner Kader Kohou is out for a second straight week with a neck injury. Top safety Jevon Holland is doubtful with a hand injury.

Allen averages 320 total yards and three touchdowns a game against the Dolphins already. What's he going to do to them with a defense at half strength? Surtur laying waste to Asgard at the end of Thor: Ragnarok comes to mind. (For non-Marvel fans, check the video. You'll get the idea quick).

Betting Things

Got back on track last week, hitting the James Cook over by a mile to snap a four-game losing streak. I'm now 4-4 on the season, but still in the hole 0.3 units.

No need for thinking against the Dolphins. This pick is locked and loaded.

At least in the regular season, the McDermott defense is darn near Tyreek Hill kryptonite. Hill put up 82 yards in the season finale last year and that became his career regular season high against Buffalo defenses. Hill was held to 24 yards in the week two game and couldn't even muster 70 yards in his previous six games before this season against the Bills.

Vegas is catching on. Hill's receiving yards line was 97.5 yards in September. This week, I'm betting the FanDuel line at under 79.5 yards (-113 odds) and that number was an outlier.

Benford is, as mentioned, questionable to play. As also mentioned, this bet is on the coaching and the scheme as much as anything. Whatever success the Dolphins have on offense, I'm confident McDermott and Babich will make sure it's not because of Hill.

The Pick

I was impressed with the Dolphins game plan for the Thursday night meeting in September. The array of misdirection in the run game kept the Bills guessing the first quarter and a half of that game. Were it not for a couple passing game mistakes the Bills punished viciously, that game may have played out a whole lot tighter.

Miami was much better against playoff teams last year early in games. McDaniel usually scripts his first 24 plays. Against playoff teams, those plays gained nearly a yard more per snap. Possessions that mostly involved those scripted plays scored twice as much as the those after the scripted portion of the game. Neither portion of the game was all that impressive. The Dolphins only averaged 16 points a game in seven contests against playoff teams in 2023.

That's all to say, if the Bills can survive the first 3 or 4 Miami possessions, they should be just fine. Buffalo has been a much better in-game adjusting team against all opponents and are very likely to do the same to Miami.

On top of that, the Bills are hot and they're home. Amari Cooper is also questionable, but Buffalo scored 31 last week in Seattle just fine with Cooper essentially a bystander.

Buffalo's defense is a terrible matchup for the thing Miami does best and Buffalo's quarterback has been a terrible matchup for anything Miami tries. There seems to be little reason to pick the Dolphins in this game. So, I won't. Give me Buffalo 33-17.