The key to Yankees’ Game 2 starter having success in a critical matchup

Carlos Rodon will get the bump for the New York Yankees as they hold a 1-0 lead in the American League Division Series over the Kansas City Royals. After a back-and-forth contest that saw a postseason-record five lead changes, Rodon will look to take the ball and give New York a decisive lead in the best-of-five series. The Yankees will have their work cut out for them on the offensive side of the ball with Cole Ragans toeing the slab in the Bronx, but Rodon is more than capable of handling business in Game 2.

In two starts against KC this year, Rodon has tossed quality starts twice with a sub-3.00 ERA in total, as there's one key weakness in the Royals' lineup that he could exploit.

Kansas City's Aggressive Offense Could Meet Its Match With Yankees' Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon is the lesser pitcher on the ticket tonight, as Cole Ragans is one of the 10 best starters in the game, but that doesn't mean he can't go toe-to-toe with the stud left-hander in this game. Carlos Rodon has a 2.91 ERA and 30% strikeout rate since the All-Star Break as he's been able to throw his changeup effectively for whiffs and sit down right-handed batters.

His ability to pick up whiffs at a high rate has been extremely encouraging, but Kansas City is not the kind of team that you'll see run high strikeout rates. What they will do is expand the zone and sell out for contact, and KC is at a matchup disadvantage on paper. The Royals have an 84 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and struggle to generate much power, but how do they attack left-handed pitching?

The Royals' aggression is roughly average in the first pitch of a count, but they'll chase and swing a ton in-zone afterward. Carlos Rodon should attack and get ahead early because a 0-0 count might be the only situation where he gets to steal a strike. While Kansas City doesn't have much thump, there are some players who pose serious threats to Rodon who he'll have to try and hold down.

Dairon Blanco

Dairon Blanco is one of the most overlooked threats that Carlos Rodon could have to deal with tonight. With in 88 games, he's one of the biggest pests a pitcher could have on-base, and the Yankees do not want to have a cat-and-mouse game between Rodon and Blanco going on as the middle of the lineup gets up. He is a brilliant athlete with great speed and bat speed, allowing him to crush baseballs against left-handed pitchers, but if you attack him with four-seamers inside from lefties and sliders down, he'll look overmatched.

Salvador Perez

Everyone knows that this is the matchup Carlos Rodon should fear the most, and for good reason. Perez can make a lot of contact and do a lot of damage on contact against left-handed pitchers, so what should Rodon do in this seemingly lopsided battle? Changeups and sliders down will generate chases and whiffs, but you have to bury both pitches. Salvador Perez does have some struggles against fastballs up-and-in, although I would understand if the Yankees were hesitant to challenge Perez given his lack of speed.

Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. crushes four-seamers, except the top of the zone seems to be a distinct weakness for him. He has a .147 wOBA and .159 xwOBA against four-seamers at the top of the strike zone from left-handed pitchers, although it's a 48-pitch sample size so perhaps that's more of a small sample size thing. Changeups are a pitch Rodon can throw to Bobby Witt Jr. since he has a .242 wOBA and 3.6% Barrel% against that pitch, so the game plan should be four-seamers up and changeups down and away.

Hunter Renfroe

Sure, Hunter Renfroe has a below-average wRC+ against LHPs, but I imagine he'll start against Rodon and he still has home-run power. That being said, velocity is a serious problem for Hunter Renfroe, as he has a .229 AVG and .281 wOBA against four-seamers at or above 95 MPH. He has yet to record a hit in 2024 against a four-seamer from a left-handed batter at or above 95 MPH this season, and he also has yet to record a hit against a lefty curveball. Speed him up with the fastball and wipe him out with breaking balls.

Freddy Fermin

Freddy Fermin is a pesky hitter who will force balls into play and will punish four-seamers and cutters. That being said, his numbers against sliders, changeups, and curveballs combined are abhorrent and Carlos Rodon should attack with them. Fermin has run a .185 wOBA, .238 xwOBA, and 38.3% Whiff Rate against those three pitches combined from left-handed pitchers, not barreling a single one of those pitches from an LHP all year. Rodon needs to ensure that his four-seamer isn't a huge part of the plan against this scrappy catcher.

Michael Massey

Michael Massey has a .110 wOBA and .201 xwOBA against sliders from LHPs with a . There's your primary pitch right there. His .340 wOBA against four-seamers with a .168 xwOBA would indicate that he doesn't do enough damage to be scared of throwing them in-zone to him as long as you locate it decently. Fastballs on the outer half of the plate are a real problem for him when it's at or above 95 MPH, so attack that part of the zone and put him away with sliders.

The key for Carlos Rodon today? Make sure the secondary command is sharp. As long as he's able to execute changeups and sliders throughout the night the Yankees should be able to hold down the Royals' offense. They chase, they force contact, but they have some serious woes against high-velocity fastballs or serious spin.

Aaron Boone should have a quick hook with an off-day tomorrow, so Rodon should be willing to empty the tank even if it means he's only able to deliver five or six innings as there's an off-day tomorrow.