The writing is on already the wall for Labour’s floundering government
Newly elected governments usually enjoy an electoral honeymoon. Labour remained well ahead in the polls long after Tony Blair scored his landslide victory in 1997. The Conservatives enjoyed a modest boost after forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in 2010. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson more than held his party's 45 per cent support in the weeks immediately after the 2019 ballot.
This is not surprising. A new government offers the prospect of turning a new page, the resolution of past difficulties, and a reversal of previous failures.
However, Sir Keir Starmer's Labour government is not enjoying any such boost . True, polls are thin on the ground as the pollsters lick their wounds after having overestimated Labour's lead in July. However, the handful of GB-wide polls that have been conducted put the party on average on just 31 per cent, down four points. Meanwhile two polls in Scotland suggest Labour has already lost its hard-won lead over the SNP.
The explanation is not hard to find. Although Labour won a landslide victory in terms of seats, its success was built on fragile electoral foundations. Faced with having to deal with a difficult if hardly unexpected fiscal crisis, that fragility has rapidly been exposed.
The electorate did not embrace Labour in July. Voters' principal objective was to see the back of a Conservative government in which they had lost confidence thanks, above all, to "Partygate" and the Liz Truss "fiscal event". Where Labour were best placed locally to defeat the Conservatives they enjoyed a significant advance. Elsewhere, other than in Scotland where Labour benefitted from the similar travails of the SNP , the party's vote typically fell back.
It was Reform, not Labour, who gained most from Tory disenchantment. Nearly one in four 2019 Conservative voters switched to Reform compared with just one in eight who backed Labour.
As a result, Labour won just 35 per cent of the vote – in an election where only three in five voted. Never before has a party won an overall majority with so low a share of the vote. Consequently, the pool of voters willing to give it the benefit of the doubt is unusually small.
That said, Labour's victory did occasion a boost in Sir Keir Starmer's personal popularity. According to Ipsos, net satisfaction with the new Prime Minister increased from -21 before the election to +7 immediately afterwards. Similar improvements were registered by both YouGov and Opinium.
But this boost has rapidly disappeared. According to Ipsos, Sir Keir's net satisfaction rating is down back to -21. Opinium reported at the weekend that his net approval score has plummeted from +18 in July to -26 now, lower than at any time while he was Leader of the Opposition.
The trouble is, Sir Keir entered 10 Downing St having conspicuously failed – in contrast to Tony Blair or David Cameron – over the previous four years to impress himself favourably on voters. It was never going to take much of a slip for Sir Keir's post-election halo of success to disappear.
One key weakness underlay his lack of popularity before entering office – an apparent inability to articulate a clear vision of the kind of country he wants to create. Labour's slogan in July was "Change" – and at this week's conference it is "Change Begins". Neither makes the intended destination clear.
The absence of that narrative helps explain why the government's emphasis during the summer on the allegedly dire legacy left by the Tories, the tough choices that will have to be made, and the unpopular decision to means test the pensioners' winter fuel payment has seemingly backfired. Voters have never had a clear idea of what their new government was about – and now they are concerned it is not going to provide the kind of change for which they were hoping.
Sir Keir is not helped either by his apparently weak political antennae. He took a long time to recognise that his decision before the election to admit the Tory MP, Natalie Elphicke, into Labour's ranks was bound to lead to questions about the continued suspension of Diane Abbott. Now it has taken Labour too long to appreciate that the receipt of highly personal gifts and hospitality would look bad for a party that had mercilessly attacked the ethics of the last Conservative government.
In truth, Labour badly need Sir Keir to be quicker off the political mark.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, University of Strathclye, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and 'The UK in a Changing Europe'. He is also co-host of the 'Trendy' podcast
