Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 2 Major Surveys—But Razor-Thin Race In Swing States
The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is close to a dead heat just six weeks before the election, according to a string of surveys that show Harris with a small lead in national polling—but a much smaller lead in the crucial swing states.
Key Facts
Big Number Surprising FactA Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14 found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris' entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?Harris leads Trump by two points overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey taken Aug. 23-27. Harris leads Trump in six of the seven states, and is tied in Arizona.
Harris has narrowed Trump's lead in Iowa over Biden from 18 points in June to four points in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, known for her accuracy.
Key BackgroundBiden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Pundits, including former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss , widely considered Harris to be the winner of the debate, as she repeatedly needled Trump, causing him to veer off topic. The majority of voters, 53%, who said they had heard at least something about the debate said Harris won, while 24% said Trump won, and the rest didn't answer, Reuters/Ipsos found. Far more Democrats (91%) also said Harris won, than the share of Republicans (53%) who said Trump did, according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey.
Further ReadingNew HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Harris Won Debate—But It Largely Hasn't Changed Voters' Minds (Forbes)
Trump's Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Here's How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris (Forbes)
