Wallabies and England meet at a crossroads with green shoots on the horizon

In any sport, at any time, at any venue, "Australia versus England" doesn't need hyperbole to be compelling. The nations share an unwritten, unspoken enmity that creates its own drama, and when the two teams run out at Twickenham this weekend, it all goes on the line for two proud fanbases desperate for bragging rights.

But with both sides holding a 4-5 win-loss record in 2024, they meet as "nearly-men" of world rugby. Each has claimed big scalps. England beat Ireland in March, Australia defeated Argentina in September. Yet both sides choked against the All Blacks and lost winnable Tests by a kick, England going down 24-22 last week and Australia falling short 31-28 in the first Bledisloe Test .

The Test at Twickenham shapes as a turning point for both sides – and both coaches. Steve Borthwick's England are hurting and need a statement after "parking the bus" against New Zealand, squandering a big lead only to be overrun in the closing stages. It continued a worrying habit for England of building winning positions then fizzling out in the final quarter.

The Wallabies have bigger issues, foremost a slide to No 9 in the IRB world rankings, part of a wider malaise affecting the game in Australia . They need to beat England to avoid a fourth successive Test defeat after a bruising hat-trick of losses to end the Rugby Championship. Unlike England, Australia have found new ways to lose, be it smashed early or run down late.

These Wallabies flew out in the Australian spring, new shoots and blossom on the breeze. Joe Schmidt has spent his first year as coach churning and repairing the scorched earth Eddie Jones left behind, sowing new seeds and pruning dead wood. After gathering his men in the summer, he rotated them through the winter Tests, trying out different combinations, looking for signs of growth.

They now arrive in the chills of a UK autumn, a season of hibernation and consolidation. With only these four Tests before the British & Irish Lions tour of Australia in July next year, Schmidt and his brains trust have an opportunity to size up the Lions one nation at a time. Does he lock in and bed down 2025 combinations now, or continue to experiment?

Rugby Australia keenly want the former to rebuild the Wallabies brand, fanbase and bottom line before the Lions hit town and the World Cup lands on home shores two years later. It's why RA has gifted Schmidt a shiny new weapon in 21-year-old prodigy Joseph Sua'ali'i, elevated to this Wallabies touring squad despite never playing a senior rugby game.

Since being called into Wallabies camp from the NRL, Australia's $5m man has impressed everyone with his power, nous and potential. But all signs point to Schmidt playing the long game, keeping Sua'ali'i on ice until the Wales Test the following weekend and instead rolling the dice on 31-year-old Samu Kerevi to lead the midfield against England.

It's a risk. Back in 2021, Kerevi was arguably the best inside-centre in the world. But the 49-Test veteran hasn't played for the Wallabies since a disappointing showing at the 2023 World Cup and has been limping through tier-two footy in Japan since. If Kerevi flops, he will join another former world-beating wing Marika Koroibete on Schmidt's scrapheap.

Schmidt's other lifeline is mercurial behemoth Will Skelton. The 203cm tall, 143kg lock has long excelled for La Rochelle in the French Top 14 but never realised his potential at international level. Jones tried to rouse the sleeping giant by making Skelton the World Cup captain, a bizarre experiment that backfired when he broke down one game into the tournament.

The former Ireland head coach thinks both veterans are worth a flutter on this Wallabies tour. "If we didn't get Samu and Will [Skelton] involved in this window, it would be very difficult to have them involved for the Lions," he said last month. "So this is part of an investment right now in the squad we've got and the growth we think those two guys think we can bring to the other guys."

In 55 Tests across 115 years, England have won 28, Australia 26, with one draw. This next Test is another crossroads: two sides growing under new coaches, both squads good but neither great. If the Wallabies win, Schmidt's gamble pays off and the dream of a grand slam is alive. Lose and Australia must turn to "the other guys" – the flower of youth led by Sua'ali'i.