What 2024 can tell us about New Jersey’s 2025 governor’s race

One of the most consequential days of the 2025 New Jersey governor's race is here: Election Day 2024.

While the country will be waiting for the results of the presidential race and who will win control of Congress, Tuesday's outcomes could give key indicators for the election that has been top of mind for New Jersey political operatives and observers.

So far there are eight declared major candidates, and that number is expected to grow after Tuesday with two sitting House members expected to announce their candidacies.

The conventional wisdom in New Jersey politics is that the party that wins the presidency is given a disadvantage in the next year's gubernatorial race. New Jersey and Virginia are the only states that hold gubernatorial elections the year after presidential years, making them national bellwethers for the political environment headed into the midterms.

Here's what Election Day can tell us about 2025:

The presidency sets the table for the governor's race

Traditionally, the outcome of the presidential election has been conversely correlated to the New Jersey governor's race.

When Republican George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 and 2004, Democrats won the New Jersey governor's mansion the following years. When Democrat Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012, Republican Chris Christie went on to win New Jersey. And in 2017, a year after Republican Donald Trump won the White House, Democrat Phil Murphy won his first term as governor by a wide margin.

The 2021 governor's race was the exception to that trend — but it was close . Murphy beat his GOP challenger Jack Ciattarelli — who is running again in 2025 — by three points in a nail-biter.

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Republicans think a Democratic White House and two straight terms of Murphy could propel the GOP back to Drumthwacket. Despite New Jersey's blue tilt, Democrats have not won three consecutive terms in the governor's office since 1961.

Privately, New Jersey Republicans say that a victory by Trump would make their path to the governor's mansion much more difficult. The former president is unpopular in New Jersey, having lost by double digits in 2016 and 2020. At one point during his presidency, New Jersey had only one GOP member of the House, down from a 6-6 party split before Trump was elected — underscoring his unpopularity in the Garden state.

Trump, who regularly spends time at his golf course in Bedminster, has been saying this cycle that he expects to be competitive in New Jersey. And at a rally in North Carolina last weekend, he forecast a victory .

"A little birdie told me that we're leading in New Jersey. What's that all about?" Trump said. "We love New Jersey. I always said about New Jersey, I said, 'It's gonna happen there.'"

A Trump White House victory would likely boost the candidacy of Bill Spadea , a far-right radio host who is running in the GOP primary and who Trump has called " fantastic ." And Trump maintaining power over the GOP would complicate the candidacy of state Sen. Jon Bramnick , a vocal anti-Trump Republican who is running for governor.

Turnout, turnout, turnout

Few races in New Jersey will be competitive this election cycle. But turnout trends could show which candidates have built in advantages headed into the 2025 primary.

High turnout in urban areas and Newark would be a boon to that city's mayor, Ras Baraka , who is running for governor trying to capture the excitement of voters of color in the state's urban cores. Newark — among the bluest parts of New Jersey — historically has abysmal turnout rates.

Turnout in Jersey City could also be an indicator of support in Mayor Steven Fulop 's home, where the 2025 candidate launched his political career roughly two decades ago.

How the two candidates-in-waiting perform

It's an open secret that Democratic Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill are preparing to run for governor in 2025. The two are all-but-declared candidates and have already lined up endorsements from labor unions and elected officials who say they should run for governor.

Both are considered shoo-ins in their respective House races. But their performances could still be key barometers of their political strength headed into what will be a crowded primary.

If they outperform Harris, it would prove that they have a strong local brand which can draw together coalitions beyond rank-and-file Democrats and boost arguments around electability in a general election. But underperforming Harris could suggest their inability to attract key parts of the Democratic base.

The overall turnout in their districts could also be a sign of the ability to get out the vote in the parts of the state where they are best known, which could be key in the June primary.

Progressives and the most competitive House race

New Jersey's premier race is in the 7th congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is in a tight contest against Democrat Sue Altman. Polls show Kean with a two-point lead, and national Democrats and Republicans have invested in the race.

Altman got her start in state politics as a progressive activist rallying against political bossism that has defined New Jersey politics. A victory would underscore the growing influence of the anti-establishment Democratic base, which also propelled Rep. Andy Kim to the Democratic nomination for Senate. Some candidates are already testing the anti-establishment message, with Fulop running his campaign strongly against the state's political boss system.

Can the GOP keep their 2021 county gains?

New Jersey Republicans in 2021 had one of their best election nights in years, winning upsets in county and state legislative races.

But Republicans erased most of their gains in the state Legislature after the 2023 state elections. Now 2024 offers a test if they can hold onto county seats they won in upsets in Passaic and Gloucester counties. If GOP incumbents are able to win in those local races, it would show that Republicans are able to grow outside of their political strongholds along the Jersey Shore and northwestern New Jersey.

But a loss — especially in a presidential year — would suggest that Trump at the top of the ticket remains toxic for down-ballot Republicans.