Who is ahead in the presidential race, Harris or Trump? Here's what recent polls say
The presidential race has tightened in the final weeks of the 2024 election, where Republican nominee Donald Trump (and his vice presi d ent running mate JD Vance ) and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris have largely remained neck-and-neck in polls.
National polls indicate a razor-thin margin between the presidential candidates, with less than 20 days until Election Day on Nov. 5. Here's where Harris and Trump currently stand in the polls on both the state and national levels.
Who is leading the polls in Ohio?
Trump carries an edge in the Ohio polls at 51.4%, while Harris' 43.6% puts her behind by 7.8 percentage points, according to Oct. 15 polling data from FiveThirtyEight .
Trump's odds of winning in Ohio are significantly higher at 92%, USA TODAY reports, based on bets placed on crypto trading platform Polymarket. While presidential election betting is not legal in the U.S., Polymarket data suggests that offshore betting markets have leaned in Trump's favor ahead of the 2024 election.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
Here is how the odds stack up for the presidential candidates, per USA TODAY :
ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.5% over Trump 46.1%, compared to last week, when Harris was 48% over Trump 47.3%. Two weeks ago, it was Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8%, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% three weeks ago . It was Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% five weeks ago. Looking back six weeks , the project had Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9%, compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% seven weeks ago.
shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.5% over Trump compared to last week's lead of 2.8% over Trump, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump two weeks ago. Three weeks ago, Harris led Trump by 3%, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump four weeks ago . Going back five weeks, it was Harris 0.9% over Trump, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump six weeks ago. Looking back seven weeks ago , the site had Harris 1.9% over Trump.
The RealClearPolling average shows Harris favored by +1.7 as of Oct. 16, compared to a tie between Harris and Trump last week. The spread two weeks ago was similar to that of Oct. 16—Harris favored with a spread of +1.8 over Trump, compared to Harris favor of +2.3 over Trump three weeks ago. Looking back four weeks, RCP had Harris +2.0 over Trump four weeks ago. Before that, it was Harris +1.1 over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump six weeks ago. Looking back further, RCP had Harris +1.7 over Trump seven weeks ago.
Polymarket , a crypto-trading platform showing odds based on betting trends, favors Trump with 56.3% chance over Harris' 43.1% chance. Last week, it was Trump 52.8% over Harris 46.7%, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% two weeks ago. Earlier, the site had Harris over Trump by 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% four weeks ago. Looking back further, Polymarket favored Harris over Trump by 1% five weeks ago or compared to Trump over Harris by 4% six weeks ago. And seven weeks ago, Harris led by 1% over Trump.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024, at 9 a.m.
