Grant Hughes Featured Columnist IV

Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Full-season NBA predictions are for the oddsmakers, so let's narrow the scope a bit and focus on the earliest stages of the 2024-25 campaign.
Maybe confining our thinking to the month of October will help our prediction hit rate as we lay out forecasts on everything from JJ Redick's first technical foul as the Los Angeles Lakers' head coach to Zach LaVine's trade value to how quickly Victor Wembanyama can get his MVP hype train running.
These aren't wild stabs. We've gotten enough hints, reports and murmurings over the last several weeks to provide some support for what we're putting out there.
Well, that's true in most cases. When it comes to Victor Wembanyama, you kind of have to leave reality behind and let your imagination take over.
Season openers are less than a month away. Time to get some near-term predictions on the record.

JJ Redick Will Get His First Technical Foul

Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Just imagine the torrent of adrenaline JJ Redick will feel when he takes the floor for the first time as the head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers. Do you really think he'll be able to contain all the competitive energy that'll be washing over him in that state?
It's not like Redick is a stranger to pressurized moments. He's seen Cameron Indoor at its most unhinged, played in some truly hostile collegiate road environments and even made it all the way to the NBA Finals. With a history like that, it's not so hard to imagine him staying calmer than most.
But this will be different.
He's never coached before. He'll be leading one of the league's marquee franchises, performing a job at which many think he'll struggle. Add to that the invigorating feel of a return to competition after three years of retirement, and Redick is going to be beyond amped.
While it feels most likely he'll earn his first technical foul for arguing a call or directing choice words toward an official, we also know Redick can get himself T'd up without saying anything at all.
The Lakers play five regular-season games in October, giving Redick 240 minutes to run afoul of the refs. That'll be more than enough time to get him started on what could be a league-leading technical foul count.

Kawhi Leonard Won't Be Ready for the Season Opener

Glenn James/NBAE via Kawhi Leonard missed the last eight games of the 2023-24 regular season due to inflammation in his right knee, an issue that limited him to two playoff appearances and may have also contributed to his departure from Team USA prior to the start of the Paris Olympics.
Months removed from that warning sign, we heard LA Clippers brass talking in concerning terms about Leonard's readiness to play.
Per Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN: "Clippers president Lawrence Frank said Tuesday that the swelling in Leonard's knee had decreased 'significantly.' But a cautious Frank was also noncommittal about Leonard being ready for the regular season."
And then the bombshell, via Shams Charania and Law Murray of The Athletic: "Clippers star Kawhi Leonard underwent a procedure on his knee in the offseason."
Leonard suited up in 68 games a year ago, his highest total since 2016-17, and it already seems like that total isn't repeatable.
It's a shame. Leonard consistently proves he's still one of the best, most complete players in the league whenever he's on the floor. He earned an All-NBA second-team nod this past season and even posted the highest true shooting percentage (62.6) of his illustrious career.
It's difficult to have faith 2024-25 will go quite so well if he's starting the season with health concerns.
This is rough news for Leonard, but it's just as concerning for the Clippers. They were already fighting an uphill battle for a playoff spot with Paul George departing for the Philadelphia 76ers in free agency. If Leonard misses significant time, leaving James Harden as the team's top star, a lottery trip should probably be the expectation.

Zach LaVine Will Rehabilitate His Trade Value

David Dow/NBAE via There was a time when it was fair to argue Zach LaVine was overrated.
He earned an elevated profile among (loaded term alert!) casual fans via preposterous athleticism, efficient three-point shooting and reliable scoring. LaVine averaged over 23.0 points per game every year from 2018-19 to 2022-23.
The "well, actually" crowd of analytically minded NBA superfans still scoffed when he inked a five-year, $215 million deal in 2022. To them, LaVine was just an empty bucket-getter who didn't defend, passed only in case of emergency and couldn't drive winning. That view was vindicated when, as things fell apart between LaVine and the Chicago Bulls over the last couple of years, it seemed the team would have to include first-round picks to trade him away.
We've officially circled all the way back around, to the point that LaVine is now underrated.
He's healthy, participating in offseason team activities and has pledged "not to overstep or stunt the development of younger players," per Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic.
Assuming his body holds up and his mental approach persists, LaVine is going to perform well enough in camp and over Chicago's first handful of October games to regenerate interest on the trade market. Underrated or overrated, LaVine doesn't fit Chicago's rebuilding priorities. So he's highly likely to move at some point this season.
Consider this a bet that when the Bulls eventually do trade the two-time All-Star, they'll first-round picks rather than give them.

Gradey Dick Will Be Named a Starter in Toronto

Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via The Toronto Raptors have four starters locked in: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl will all be first-unit mainstays in 2024-25. Expect second-year guard Gradey Dick to quickly end any discussion about who should round out that quintet.
Dick got a handful of opportunities with the first unit last year after the Raptors dealt Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, and he shot 37.1 percent from long range after the trade deadline. Defensively, the Kansas product leaves something to be desired, but it's important to note that Dick isn't just a three-point shooter offensively.
Both head coach Darko Rajaković and general manager Bobby Webster put it on the record that they see Dick contributing as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and off-the-dribble playmaker as he matures, and that vision got some support in Summer League. Dick handed out six assists in one of his Vegas games and looked comfortable making decisions on the ball.
Assuming that growth persists, Toronto won't have much of a decision to make at starting shooting guard. Ochai Agbaji's defense is stellar, and Bruce Brown might offer a more balanced role-playing presence whenever he returns to full health. But Dick's perimeter game and secondary playmaking will make him the easy choice by opening night.

Victor Wembanyama Will Have Legit MVP Buzz

Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Why are we pretending as if Victor Wembanyama won't do something statistically absurd within the first week of the 2024-25 regular season?
It's going to happen. The only question is which form it'll take.
Maybe he'll hit 10 threes in game. Maybe he'll block 15 shots. Maybe both! Based on the way he closed out his rookie year, absolutely anything is on the table. The guy averaged 23.2 points, 11.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists in March, then exploded down the stretch with 25.0 points, 12.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game in April.
With Chris Paul on board as resident pick-and-roll spoon-feeder, Wemby is going to get a handful of no-stress buckets every night. Price in a little expected growth, and it's not all that hard to imagine him concluding his second year with averages around 30.0 points, 14.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists.
An almost iron-clad lock on Defensive Player of the Year, a high chance of a heretofore unseen feat on a nightly basis and somewhat conservative statistical projections that would make Hall of Famers jealous? How in the world is Wemby only eighth in preseason MVP odds?
He's going to set up camp among the top five before the calendar flips to November, and we're all going to wonder why we didn't just assume he'd be there from the jump.

The Warriors Will Start Small

Rocky Widner/NBAE via For over a decade, everyone who's watched the Golden State Warriors knows they've been at their absolute best in small-ball configurations. Also well understood: The Dubs do not like to put Draymond Green at center unless they have to.
It wasn't quite a "desperate times, desperate measures" thing, but Golden State always held back the various versions of its Death Lineup until it was ready to go in for the kill. Whether that meant resorting to it when down in a playoff series or using it as a late-game close-out weapon, small-ball was never the Warriors' default.
Well, ahead of a 2024-25 season in which Stephen Curry will turn 37 and no clear star second option has emerged, that's going to change. The Warriors aren't good enough to hold anything in reserve.
Part of the confidence in this prediction stems from Golden State's dearth of alternatives. Kevon Looney looked completely washed for most of last season, and Trayce Jackson-Davis provides no spacing. Nobody expects Green to repeat last year's 39.5 percent shooting from deep, but his distribution skills and willingness to operate on the perimeter allows the offense to breathe.
Let's oversimplify.
The Dubs posted a plus-6.4 net rating with Green at the 5 last year. With Looney at center, that number dropped to a plus-1.0 net rating. TJD's time in the middle produced a plus-0.4 .
In order to get their most talented players—Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga—on the floor together, the Warriors have no choice but to slot Green at the 5.
What was once a luxury is going to become a necessity.

Cam Thomas Will Score 50 Points

G Fiume/ The Cam Thomas scoring eruption is inevitable. You know it's going to happen, and the only question is "when?"
Well, we think the first of those eruptions will take place early. Very early. And when you look at the high-scoring guard's career resumé, it doesn't feel all that bold to say he's going to crack the 50-point plateau within the Brooklyn Nets' first few games.
Thomas has been an unabashed chucker for his entire career. He's the all-time leading scorer at Oak Hill Academy, whose alumni include bucket-getters like Jerry Stackhouse and Carmelo Anthony, and he was also the highest-scoring freshman in the country during his one season at LSU.
Now that the Nets have control of their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks, they have no reason to hold Thomas back as a tank commander. He's going to be allowed to shoot and score as much as he wants.
There were 20 50-point games in the league last year, and Thomas cracked the 40-point mark four times. He's going to get into the half-century club early.

Reed Sheppard Will Not Be Denied

Adam Hagy/NBAE via Fred VanVleet is the incumbent starter at the point, and the Houston Rockets have every reason to see if Jalen Green can validate last year's late-season surge ahead of restricted free agency. So you can imagine why rookie Reed Sheppard might struggle to get the minutes you'd normally allocate for a No. 3 overall pick.
Throw in the facts that Alperen Şengün does plenty of playmaking and that Amen Thompson was drafted a year ago as a potential point guard, and it gets even easier to envision Sheppard playing sparingly to start the year.
The obstacles are real, but Sheppard is going to overcome them. He'll play well enough in camp and during the preseason to earn a significant rotation role by the time the regular season kicks off. That's not to say he'll displace VanVleet from the first unit, but it wouldn't be a shock if the Rockets quietly started entertaining trade offers for the veteran point guard early in the season.
Sheppard's collegiate career was marked by a double-take inducing 52.1 percent clip from three and an unheard of 2.5 steals per game. Then, in what's become a trend for Kentucky products, he unveiled all sorts of skills in Summer League that nobody was sure he possessed.
Floaters, on-ball verve, intriguing facilitation—Sheppard flashed a variety of previously unseen or minimized attributes. Once he's given an extended chance to showcase his total game in scrimmages and practice, his fitness for major minutes will become undeniable.

The Memphis Grizzlies Will Come Out on Fire

Justin Ford/ A favorable schedule helps, but the scorching start we're envisioning for the Memphis Grizzlies will have more to do with the team's quality and motivation than the collective ease of the team's six October contests.
Road tilts at Utah and Houston are both winnable, followed by four straight home games against East foes. A 5-1 mark heading into November is more than realistic.
Ja Morant will be out to prove he still belongs on the short list of the league's most promising young players, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. picked up new skills with Morant out for almost all of last year, and hulking rookie Zach Edey is going to lay some tone-setting lumber on opponents from the opening tip of his first game.
The Grizzlies took a gap year in 2023-24, succumbing to injuries up and down the roster that made everyone forget they were a 50-win outfit in each of the two prior seasons. At the very least, they should get back to that level. And if Jackson and Bane really do sustain the self-sufficient scoring they flashed last year, those two will team with Morant to create one of the most imposing three-man wrecking crews in the league.
The run will start in October and extend well into the playoffs, which this bunch could easily enter as a top-four seed in the West.

Jalen Williams' Stardom Will Be Obvious Right Away

Dustin Satloff/ Jalen Williams closed out his second season on a somewhat sour note. But things are about to get a whole lot sweeter for the Santa Clara product.
Expect J-Dub to put any concerns about his fitness as a second star to bed right away. After struggling to prove he could be the Oklahoma City Thunder's secondary offensive engine behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the playoffs, Williams, who made a massive leap as a sophomore, is going to make another one.
It's difficult to bet against continued growth for a player who went from being a lightly recruited prospect to a shockingly high-climber up draft boards to a second-place finisher in Rookie of the Year voting.
The ascent didn't stop there.
Williams averaged 19.1 points, 4.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds on a 54.0/42.7/81.4 shooting split last season as he finished fourth in Most Improved Player voting.
It might even be a good thing that Williams had a tough time handling an outsized role in his first playoff atmosphere. Those issues left no doubt about what aspects he had to improve ahead of season No. 3.
Stardom is ahead for J-Dub, and that's going to be obvious immediately.

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