Here’s What To Know About Early Voting—As Data Shows Some Bright Spots For Democrats

Topline

Early voting is underway in almost every state across the country just 18 days before Election Day as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied in polls—and while there's no consensus on who is ahead among early voters so far, there are some positive signs for Democrats in the data.

Key Facts

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No conclusions about who is going to win can be drawn from early voting data, Democratic political strategist and TargetSmart Senior Adviser Tom Bonier warned to CBS. "Polls will tell us how people are going to vote, but not who's going to vote," he said, adding that early voting data is "not going to tell us who is going to win, but it's good breadcrumbs."

Surprising Fact

The share of early voters in Pennsylvania who are Republicans has increased to 24% so far this year from 16% in 2020, according to TargetSmart data provided to CBS on Wednesday. Democrats have historically dominated absentee ballot voting in Pennsylvania.

More than 1 million voters have already cast early ballots in Georgia, breaking in-person records on the first day of early voting Tuesday and again Wednesday. As of Thursday morning, 55,748 people had voted by absentee ballot and 940,387 had voted in person, according to the Georgia Secretary of State's office . Voting rights advocates have been pushing voters to cast their ballots in person amid a slate of new GOP-backed rules in Georgia they say could hinder the election process, including requiring the hand-counting of ballots and video surveillance at ballot drop boxes after polls close during early voting. A judge overturned the rules passed by the Trump-aligned State Election Board on Thursday, but the Republican National Committee and state Republican Party have appealed the ruling.

Big Number Key Background

Trump and Harris head into Election Day in a dead-heat contest, with polls showing a virtual tie between the two, including in the seven swing states likely to decide the election. Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, while Harris is ahead in Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin , though neither candidate is leading in any battleground state by more than 1.6 points.

What To Watch For

Trump and his allies are gearing up to contest the results of the election if he loses, which Trump has claimed could only happen if Democrats cheat. Trump has also said he will only accept the results of the election if it is "fair and legal and a good election," leaving open the possibility he could claim malfeasance if he loses. Republicans have already filed dozens of voting rights lawsuits in the 2023-2024 cycle to contest election protocols in battleground states, while Trump has claimed his legal issues, Harris replacing Biden at the top of the ticket and any negative coverage of him in the race all amount to election interference.

When Is Election Day?

Nov. 5.

How Do Early Voting Totals This Year Compare To Previous Elections?

Early voting totals pale in comparison to 2020 figures, when the pandemic drove up participation in mail-in voting, but they're slightly ahead of early voting in the 2022 midterm elections, which is also typical as voter participation is historically higher in presidential election years.

How Many People Have Voted In Swing States?

In the seven swing states most likely to decide the results of the election, 1.4 million Democrats have voted, while just under 1 million Republicans and 253,449 unaffiliated voters have already cast their ballots, according to TargetSmart.

Which States Have Started Early Voting By Mail Or Absentee Ballot?

Every state except Washington, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Hawaii.

Is In-Person Early Voting Offered In Every State?

No. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire only offer early voting by mail with an eligible reason.

Is Mail-In Voting Offered In Every State?

Yes, but nine states—Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia—require an eligible reason to vote by mail.

Further Reading

Here's How Trump And His Allies Are Teeing Up Potential Election Loss Challenges (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads In Arizona And Georgia, Harris Up In North Carolina (Update) (Forbes)