Jay Newton Small: Here are two ways we could elect moderate candidates
Sep. 18—U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, on Wednesday saw his latest bid to fund the government fail, taken down by his own right flank. He now has 11 days to figure out how to fund the government lest it shut down weeks ahead of the presidential election.
Washington dysfunction is an old story: Every six months the government teeters on the brink of shutdown. Both parties have grappled with reining in their fringes, though Republicans have had a harder time, losing two speakers to their party's malcontents. Johnson, if he is forced to rely on Democratic votes — as is likely — risks becoming a third head to roll on the altar of party purity.
Why is Washington so broken? There are a lot of reasons: A fundamentally flawed campaign finance system, a lack of a shared sense of truth, but the biggest factors have been gerrymandered districts and closed primaries. These two factors over the past 60 years have led to the election of a new breed of politicians incentivized to never compromise for fear they lose their next primary.
But all this may be changing — and New Mexico is part of that change.
"There has definitely been a slow but steady movement across the country toward removing elected officials from overseeing the redistricting process and increasing access to the primary elections for nonpartisan or independent voters," said Gabriel R. Sanchez, a professor at the University of New Mexico's political science department. "This, in my view, is a positive trend."
In 1959, California led the nation in closing its partisan primaries, and it was one of many states that were already gerrymandering their congressional districts to form safe Democratic and Republican seats — all but locking out independent voters from the process. But, troubled by Washington's increasing inability to fulfill their basic mandates — for example, Congress hasn't managed passed all of its required appropriations measures since 1997 — California in 2012 led the nation in reopening its primaries and putting redistricting in the hands of an independent commission. And, as they did in the 1960s, dozens of states have followed suit.
There are now 27 states with open primaries, and 10 states have independent or pseudo-independent commissions redrawing their districts. Three states — Nevada, Oregon and Missouri — have initiatives on their ballots in November to open up their primaries. And one state, Ohio, has an initiative to form an independent redistricting commission.
New Mexico has a pseudo-independent commission launched in 2021, though the state legislature still has the final say over the maps drawn. Although more than a quarter of its state's voters are unaffiliated with the two major parties, New Mexico currently has a closed primary, but both Sanchez and professor Mike Rocca, who is also with UNM's political science department, say the state is moving towards an open primary.
"We have seen legislation that would make New Mexico a state with (semi-open primaries) that would allow independent voters to participate without having to change the registration pass in the Senate with both Democratic and Republican support," Sanchez said. "It might take a couple more legislative sessions for the House to pass this legislation, but I believe that with more states moving in that direction, it will be just a matter of time before New Mexico joins that movement."
Rocca added that though there's no conclusive evidence, anecdotally over the past 20 years, "there's a strong belief that open primaries yield more moderate candidates, and that makes a lot of sense."
Nationwide, the number of independent voters has increased from 27% in 1994 to 31% in 2024, according to the Pew Research Center.
"Whenever you have states and communities pushing for open primaries, it's a signal that there's a demand for moderation and a rejection of polarization," Rocca said. "So, any momentum towards open primaries, I read that as a frustration with the status quo, frustration with polarization and a move to the middle."
So far, much of the movement has been on the Democratic side. Of the 27 states with open primaries, 15 of them went for President Joe Biden in 2020 and four of the seven states with independent redistricting commissions are Democratic-leaning. In all four of the states that allow the parties to decide whether to let in nonaffiliated voters to their primaries — North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah — Democrats hold open primaries and Republicans closed. Finally, three of the open states that have measures on the ballot this fall to close them (Alaska) or limit their openness (Missouri and Arizona) are right-leaning.
While the jury still may be out on the efficacy of open primaries to produce moderation, it's not on ranked choice voting (RCV) — or open voting systems that allow the top vote earners in primaries proceed to the general election irrespective of party. Studies have shown that RCV does lead to the election of more moderate, centrist candidates.
Some 18 states, including New Mexico, have allowed RCV to one degree or another, according to Ballotpedia, though New Mexico does not yet allow it for Congressional elections. But 10 states, all of them Republican-leaning, have banned RCV. Missouri may become the 11th state this November, depending which way voters go.
"Some real progress has been made, including as well the move toward rank choice voting," said Norm Ornstein, who co-authored the 2008 book, "The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track," in which he argues for open primaries and non-gerrymandered districts. "But so many states are going against this reform tide, ratcheting up efforts at both partisan and racial gerrymandering, knowing they have a Supreme Court and state courts giving them free rein, and using dark money and voter suppression to tilt the playing field. So good news and bad news at the same time."
So, politics is still mostly broken — just ask poor Speaker Johnson, who is having yet another tough week. But maybe some Congress in the near future might break differently if these reforms keep gaining momentum. Certainly in New Mexico there's room for improvement.
