Kamala Harris Not the Favorite in Any Battleground State—Odds Markets
Donald Trump has surged ahead of Kamala Harris in the presidential race in almost all of the key battleground states, according to the latest betting odds from Polymarket.
With less than three weeks remaining until election day, Trump is now favored to win in every major swing state, marking a significant shift in momentum. Polymarket odds show Trump leading Harris nationally with a 60.3 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris' 39.7 percent. The site is partially funded by Republican billionaire Peter Thiel , who introduced Trump to his running mate, J.D. Vance , in 2021.
In the seven battleground states, Trump's odds are even more striking. As of Thursday, he holds a 68 percent chance of winning Arizona, 63 percent in North Carolina, and 65 percent in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, a pivotal state, Trump has a 59 percent chance of victory, while Harris lags at 41 percent. Michigan and Wisconsin show Trump leading by 12 percentage points in both, with odds of 56 percent to 44 percent in his favor. Nevada is the only state where the odds remain split evenly, with both candidates having a 50 percent chance of victory.
This dramatic shift in the odds has coincided with a high stakes move by a mysterious Polymarket user, "Fredi9999," who has bet millions on Trump's victory.
As reported by Newsweek earlier this week , the trader has purchased over $14 million worth of shares betting on a Trump win, including a hefty investment in Pennsylvania, which with 19 Electoral College votes and polling on a knife edge is perhaps the most critical battleground state this cycle.
Fredi9999 has been actively increasing their position, with bets placed as recently as this week, sparking speculation about their strategy and intentions.
Political experts are warning that while betting odds can indicate trends, they are far from a guaranteed predictor of election outcomes.
Thomas Gift, director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, cautioned in a recent Newsweek interview that "betting markets have evolved into reasonably accurate predictors of elections—even more than some polls—but they're far from foolproof."
He noted that odds often fluctuate due to small, seemingly insignificant events that may not reflect broader trends in the electorate.
The Polymarket odds have diverged from traditional polling, which paints a much closer race in many battleground states.
According to the prediction model of FiveThirtyEight, which is based on weighted polling averages, Harris is leading Trump by 2-3 percentage points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. However, Trump has gained the upper hand in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, where he holds slight polling advantages.
Nevertheless, the influence of betting markets on the perception of the race is significant. Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor, argued in a recent Substack post that large bets, such as those placed by "Fredi9999," may be artificially inflating Trump's odds by creating a "floor" in the market. This strategy could, in turn, affect the broader narrative surrounding the election, potentially boosting Trump's public image as the frontrunner.
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Trump and Harris via email for comment.
