Long a Democratic stronghold, is N.J. turning red?

The numbers in New Jersey on Election Night were more than a little surprising to some.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris , in losing a hard-fought presidential race to Republican former President Donald Trump , won the Garden State. But not by a lot, in a place in that has voted blue in national elections year after year the last few decades.

Harris' 5-point win here was the closest for a Democratic White House contender since 1992 and comes after Trump lost the state by 14 and 16 points, respectively, in his last two races.

In Passaic County, where registered Democrats once far outnumbered registered Republicans, the swing toward the GOP is already particularly noticeable, as was the former president's more than 6,500 edge over Harris at the polls there.

Elsewhere in the state, shifts in voting patterns have also seen Democrats once thought to be invulnerable go down in defeat. Nowhere was that more shocking than in the loss two years ago of Democratic former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney against Ed Durr , a virtually unknown Republican truck driver — an upset that saw Durr ousted after just one term by former state Assemblyman John Burzichelli.

Of course, Democrats still have more than 2.5 million registered voters in New Jersey, compared to 1.6 million Republicans. But the ranks of the GOP have been growing. The party added voters in all 21 of the state's counties since 2020, with the biggest increase in the Republican stronghold of Ocean County.

Democrats, election data shows, have fewer registered voters in 11 counties than the party had in 2020 and increased their ranks by only 9,776 since the last presidential election in 2020.

So is New Jersey turning red? Or at least more purple?

U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew , R-2nd Dist. — the former Democrat turned Trump Republican — believes so. He declared Tuesday that New Jersey is "now officially a swing state," in the wake of the presidential tallies here.

Other Republicans see similar trends, which could portend what might happen in next year's massive gubernatorial election, when the two parties vie for the seat of Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy , who is term-limited and cannot run for re-election.

State Sen. Holly Schepisi, R-Bergen, said the results Tuesday in New Jersey were part a reaction to a state where Democrats have been in control of the Legislature for more than 20 years and the governor's office for seven.

"I think this is a lot of residents of our state fighting back and pushing back," Schepisi said. "We're seeing it in voter registration numbers."

Meanwhile, state Sen. Declan O'Scanlon, a Monmouth County Republican, dismissed the idea that the GOP still has a big disadvantage in voter registration.

"We've had that general ratio for a long time, and Republicans have managed to win a number of statewide elections for governor and came dangerously close last time," O'Scanlon said, referring to the much-closer-than-anticipated 2021 race been Murphy and his Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli , who is again running for governor next year.

"The people of New Jersey are smart above being partisan," O'Scanlon argued.

As for the Democrats, Murphy suggested during a post-election news conference Wednesday in Newark that his tight re-election three years ago "might have been the canary in the coal mine."

"It's clearly economic, kitchen-table issues. It's immigration. No matter what the facts are, it's probably crime and public safety," Murphy said. "And it's time to look in the mirror and make sure, either changing substance, if it needs to be changed, or changing how we communicate what we stand for."

State Sen. Vin Gopal, D-Monmouth — who represents a purple district in the state Legislature — said Democrats have had a "big messaging problem" for a while, alienating working-class voters on issues like the economy, immigration, and crime.

"Folks want to talk about the economy, cost of living," Gopal said. "They don't want to hear us talking about social issues all the time."

"I think this should be a big wakeup call for Democrats," he added.

Former state Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg said her party needs to concentrate "on what's going on in our home base." The Bergen County Democrat said she believed in her party, which she also believed stood closer to what most people here believe.

"Having said that, we can't take the people who live here and vote here for granted," she said.

The thought of the political tide changing in New Jersey, though, was rejected outright by Sen. Raj Mukherji. The Hudson Democrat said he wasn't worried about Tuesday's results here, saying "the other side's turnout bested us."

Mukherji called the Trump-Harris numbers in New Jersey simply a "one-off" for this election cycle.

"New Jersey's not getting redder," he insisted.

Indeed, Ben Dworkin, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University, agreed that he doesn't see a rightward shift in the state.

"We still live in a very partisan age," Dworkin said. "There's still a lot more Democratic partisans in the state. This was a unique election."

Also, there is the wonder whether this could all be bad news heading into next year's massive statewide election, when Murphy's tenure is up and there will be a crowded governor's race to succeed him.

In fact, he noted there is already talk among Democrats who think Trump's win bodes well for the party in next year's governor's race.

"It's a silver lining in an otherwise rough night," Dworkin said of the results on Tuesday.

New Jersey is typically considered a bellwether because its gubernatorial elections come a year after presidential races, and conventional wisdom is Democrats now stand a better chance with voters next year as an answer to Trump's first year. But New Jersey often goes back and forth between Democrat and Republican governors, and no party in modern history has ever held the governor's seat for more than eight straight years.

"It's too early to tell where the race may go right now, given it's an open seat, but it will certainly be seen as a sign as to whether voters' ideological mood shifts back to the Democrats or if they double down on Trump-era Republicanism," said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. "Republican candidates, in particular, in New Jersey have mostly had to dance around Trumpism given Garden State voters' more moderate ideology. It will be interesting to see which direction the party decides to go in given the gains made this cycle with Trump at the top of the ticket."

Murphy said he does not believe New Jersey is a swing state now, at least not for presidential races. Democrats have also now won every U.S. Senate race in the state since 1978, though Andy Kim 's 8-point win Wednesday was also closer than anticipated.

"I do think it continues to be anybody's ballgame for a sensible candidate for governor on either side of the aisle," Murphy told NJ Advance Media in a phone interview Wednesday. "I still think this is a blue state for the presidential. But I will also say: You can't take that for granted."

"You can never put your feet up," the governor added. "And maybe we as a party put our feet up a little bit."

Dworkin said it was too soon to see a red wave trend in this state.

"You need a couple of elections in a row to prove the trend," the Rowan professor said.