NATO's Russian Warplane Dilemma
Russian aircraft flying near NATO borders on both sides of the globe to intimidate the alliance have raised fears they could cause a miscalculation with serious consequences.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) released footage on Monday that showed a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 closely buzzing a U.S. F-16 fighter jet on September 23 in a move described as "unsafe" and "unprofessional" that had "endangered all."
Cockpit and runway footage released by Russia's defense ministry on September 24 claiming to show a Tupolev Tu-95MS strategic bomber flying near the western coast of Alaska was Moscow's latest bold message to the alliance about its capabilities.
It was a busy September for NORAD, which also reported two Russian Ilyushin Il-38 patrol aircraft and two Russian Tupolev Tu-142 maritime reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft close to Alaska.
These incidents occurred in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) surrounding U.S. and Canada sovereign airspace, where planes require authorization to enter or potentially face interception.
One expert told Newsweek that Moscow's goal with the flights is to keep NATO "on alert while demonstrating Russia's enduring military reach."
NORAD has said Russia's activity is "not seen as a threat" and Moscow has emphasized its flight are over "neutral waters" but they come amid heightened tensions following Vladimir Putin 's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Thousands of miles and 11 time zones away, NATO Eurofighters stationed in Latvia were scrambled on September 20 and 21 to escort Russian aircraft near the Latvian border with Belarus. Sweden and Finland, NATO's newest members, have also reported separate airspace violations by Russian military planes in recent months.
Gordon "Skip" Davis, a retired U.S. Major General who was NATO's deputy assistant secretary general for its defense investment division, said Russia's airspace violations spiked following Moscow's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent first invasion of Ukraine's Donbas region.
But the recent incidents could be linked to Ukraine's request for lifting restrictions on long-range munitions to strike military targets deep in Russia and decisions by NATO nations to sustain or increase military assistance to Ukraine.
"Russian flights near Alaska and the Baltic region serve as both military provocations and strategic messages aimed at keeping NATO and the U.S. on alert while demonstrating Russia's enduring military reach," said Davis, senior fellow, at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
He said that when Russian military aircraft fly near NATO airspace, their transponders are typically turned off, which means that the planes do not transmit transponder codes that identify their type, position and altitude.
"Additionally, they often do not file flight plans or communicate with civilian air traffic controllers," he said. "This behavior increases the risk of dangerous incidents or miscalculations in the crowded airspace near NATO borders."
Between 2013 and 2021, annual interceptions typically ranged between 290 and 350 instances which included Russian military planes flying near or into NATO airspace, often failing to communicate with air traffic controllers or use transponders.
However, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the situation escalated in 2022 with NATO scrambling jets approximately 570 times.
In 2023, the number of intercepts dropped back to pre-invasion levels, with NATO conducting over 300 intercepts, mostly over the Baltic region.
These incidents have been part of psychological operations (psyops) since the Cold War that aim to keep rivals on their toes and force them to switch on signal intelligence and radars "to test the other side's readiness," historian Sergey Radchenko said.
"Inadvertent escalation is a dangerous aspect of these missions, whether it's the Russians flying their aircraft close to American airspace in Alaska or in the Baltic Sea," Radchenko told Newsweek.
The shooting down of a Korean Airlines commercial flight on September 1, 1983 en route from New York to Seoul followed increased tensions between the U.S. and Soviet Union and Moscow being on edge about a pre-emptive strike.
"The good thing is that there we have more than 70 years of practice," said Radchenko, professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. "There are some rules of engagement that have been worked out and we have to hope that those rules are followed."
NORAD said in September that Russian flights into the ADIZ were a regular occurrence and Davis noted how intercepts are a routine part of NATO's air-policing mission which has been stepped up since February 2022.
However, a joint flight by Russian and Chinese bombers near Alaska in July prompted U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to raise concerns about the military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, which has grown since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
On September 23, a Russian-Chinese flotilla entered the Sea of Okhotsk in the Western Pacific in joint navy exercises called Beibu/Interaction-2024.
Robert Murrett, retired U.S. Vice Admiral and deputy director of the Syracuse University Institute for Security Policy and Law said that the uptick in intercepts in international airspace and the ADIZ is part of the back and forth of sending signals about sensitivity in areas of high interest, particularly regarding excessive territorial claims.
As well as the Baltic and the Russia and Alaska border areas, interceptions have occurred over the Sea of Japan, Norwegian Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea.
"These intercepts in the air and on the water place a strong emphasis on cool heads and varsity-level airmanship and ship handling," Murrett told Newsweek.
On April 1, 2001, a mid-air collision between a United States Navy EP-3E ARIES II signals intelligence aircraft and a Chinese Air Force J-8 interceptor caused an international incident.
"There's always potential for incidents when air close proximity," said Murrett. "Seamanship and airmanship are really important and professionalism is at a high price and if it's not met then accidents could certainly happen."
Newsweek has contacted NATO, NORAD and the Russian defense ministry for comment.
