Nearly 260 Million Americans Will Be Overweight Or Obese By 2050: Study

The US overweight and obese population will rise significantly in the next quarter century if current trends continue, and new weight-loss treatments won't be sufficient to stem the tide, researchers said.

Nearly 260 million Americans will be overweight or obese by 2050, straining the health-care system and boosting medical costs, according to a study published Thursday in The Lancet medical journal. Rates among adult men will rise to 81% from 76% in 2021, and to 82% from 73% among women.

While medical institutions have been slow to recognize obesity as a disease, it raises the risk for a variety of dangerous, pervasive health outcomes, including diabetes, heart disease and cancer. The success of weight-loss drugs shouldn't be allowed to overshadow the need for measures — such as promotion of healthy diet and exercise — that are crucial to slowing the growth of the crisis, said Marie Ng, a co-author of the study.

"All of these factors combined have contributed to the continuous rise in obesity prevalence over the past three decades," said Ng, who's an affiliate associate professor at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. "If these drivers persist, the obesity crisis will likely continue to worsen."

Obesity and overweight are both defined by body-mass index, a measure calculated using both height and weight. People with obesity are more severely affected than overweight people.

GLP-1 drugs like Novo Nordisk A/S's Wegovy and Eli Lilly & Co.'s Zepbound have been shown to help patients safely shed pounds while decreasing some associated health risks. Use of the drugs has been hampered by insufficient supplies and spotty insurance coverage, along with costs of about $1,000 a month for the injections.

"Equitable access is very important if we're to leverage this medication," Ng said in an interview. Uncertainty remains about the implications of long-term use of the drugs in large populations, she said.

US obesity rates doubled over the three decades ending in 2021, fueled by factors such as growing availability of high-calorie foods, sedentary lifestyles and decreasing access to healthy foods, particularly in lower-income communities, Ng said. About one in five children and at least one in three adolescents are expected to be living with obesity in 2050, according to the study.

While Southern states are expected to remain among those most affected, the biggest gains in men by 2050 are expected in Colorado and New Mexico, and in Kansas and Colorado for women, according to the study. No particular region is exempt from the anticipated increases, Ng said.

Obesity is "an issue not just for one particular state," she said, "but the whole nation."