Ranking the Ace Pitcher for Every 2024 MLB Playoff Team

Joel Reuter

Ranking the Ace Pitcher for Every 2024 MLB Playoff Team

Thearon W. Henderson/ It is virtually impossible to win a World Series without a strong starting rotation, and specifically a bona fide ace who can shoulder a significant load under the bright lights of postseason baseball.
Following a thrilling day of bonus baseball on Monday, the 2024 MLB playoff field is now set, and ahead is a closer look at who will fill the role of staff ace for each of the contenders in October.
These 12 pitchers are ranked based on their overall production this season, recent numbers over just the past few months and their career postseason track record.
Which team has the best playoff ace to lean on?

Jason Miller/
Career Playoff ERA: N/A
Let's preface this by saying the Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball, so they will not be relying as heavily on their ace to be a workhorse in October as most of the other teams in this year's playoff field.
Shane Bieber has been the ace of the staff for years in Cleveland, but he made just two starts before he was lost for the year to Tommy John surgery, and that has left Tanner Bibee in the role of de facto ace for much of the year.
The 2023 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up twirled three straight quality starts to close out the regular season, and he had a 2.64 ERA over 30.2 innings in September.

Mark Blinch/
Career Playoff ERA:
The New York Mets stuck to the middle of the market when it came to plugging the holes in their starting rotation last offseason, adding Sean Manaea and Luis Severino on short-term deals coming off poor 2023 performances.
After an inconsistent start to the year, he hit his stride during the second half, ripping off a run of 11 starts where he went 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 72.0 innings while recording nine quality starts during that span.
That eye sore of a postseason ERA includes a pair of starts with the Oakland Athletics in 2019 and 2020, as well as a relief appearance with the San Diego Padres in 2022, but he is pitching at a different level right now.

Norm Hall/
Career Playoff ERA:
Once a strong candidate for the title of best No. 3 starter in baseball when he was slotted behind Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff in the Milwaukee rotation, Freddy Peralta is now the ace of the staff.
The 28-year-old was his usual electric self this season, reaching 200 strikeouts for the second year in a row while limiting opposing hitters to a .224 batting average that was sixth-lowest among qualified NL pitchers.
However, his 68 walks and 9.4 percent walk rate are both less-than-ideal numbers, and handing the other team easy baserunners in October can be a recipe for disaster.
Peralta went five innings and allowed three hits, two walks and four earned runs to take the loss in Game 2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Wild Card Round a year ago.

Lachlan Cunningham/
Career Playoff ERA:
It was a unique offseason for the San Diego Padres in that they traded away superstar Juan Soto, but they also made a major move as buyers when they acquired Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox.
With Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove both missing significant time this year, the 28-year-old has somewhat unexpectedly had the role of staff ace thrust upon him, while Michael King— who was acquired from the Yankees in the Soto deal—has been the No. 2 guy.
Cease has the stuff to dominate every time he takes the mound, but he also only completed six full innings in 19 of his 33 starts, so manager Mike Shildt will need to plan accordingly with his bullpen usage.

David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via
Career Playoff ERA:
Despite all of the injuries the Los Angeles Dodgers have been forced to navigate this year, including losing Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone for the remainder of the season in August, they still enter the postseason with a solid one-two punch atop the rotation.
Right-hander Jack Flaherty will take the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS while rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the Game 2 nod, and those two will be asked to lead the way in October.
Flaherty, 28, is poised to cash in after raising his stock considerably playing on a one-year, $14 million deal. The Dodgers acquired him from Detroit at the deadline, and he has gone 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 61 strikeouts in 55.1 innings since the trade.

Ed Zurga/
Career Playoff ERA:
Who would have guessed Seth Lugo signing a two-year, $30 million deal with the Kansas City Royals would end up being one of the most impactful moves of the offseason?
Used primarily as a reliever during his seven seasons with the New York Mets, he shifted into a starting role after signing a one-year deal with the San Diego Padres prior to the 2023 season, and he quietly posted a 3.57 ERA over 146.1 innings.
The 34-year-old has put together a breakout season for the upstart Royals, joining rising ace Cole Ragans to form one of the most underappreciated starting pitching tandems in recent memory.
Continuing to limit the long ball—he allowed just 16 home runs in 206.2 innings during the regular season—will be one of the major keys to his success in October.

Tim Warner/
Career Playoff ERA:
The value of postseason experience is difficult to quantify, and Framber Valdez has as much of it as any active pitcher in the game with 80.2 innings of work under the bright lights of playoff baseball.
Over his first 13 postseason appearances, he went 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 68.2 innings, playing a key role in the Houston Astros winning a World Series title in 2022 against the Philadelphia Phillies.
However, he was hit hard last October, losing all three of his starts while allowing 19 hits, six walks and 12 earned runs in 12 innings.
Which Framber Valdez will show up in 2024?

Evan Bernstein/
Career Playoff ERA:
A true ace of the staff looked like the missing piece for a Baltimore Orioles team on the rise heading into last offseason, and they got their guy when they swung a blockbuster deal to acquire Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers.
The 29-year-old is almost certainly headed for his fifth straight Top 10 finish in Cy Young balloting, but his performance in October will ultimately determine whether the move to acquire him was worth it with free agency looming this winter.
His two career postseason starts have landed at opposite ends of the spectrum, as he threw a gem in Game 1 of the 2021 NLDS () but was hit hard in Game 1 of the 2023 Wild Card Series (L, 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER).

Justin Casterline/
Career Playoff ERA:
The postseason resume may be lacking, but left-hander Chris Sale just put together the best season of his career at the age of 35 and in his 14th big league season.
After coming over in a buy-low offseason trade with the Boston Red Sox, he has enjoyed a career renaissance, going 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 225 strikeouts in 177.2 innings to win NL Triple Crown honors.
Back spasms kept him from making a crucial start on Monday, and he is not expected to be available for the Wild Card Series, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.
In his absence, left-hander Max Fried profiles as the ace of the staff, but we'll keep Sale penciled in as the staff ace for now and assume he returns for the NLDS if the Braves advance past the San Diego Padres.

Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via
Career Playoff ERA: N/A
Tarik Skubal hinted at a major breakout season to come when he posted a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 80.1 innings over 15 starts in his return from flexor tendon surgery in 2023.
Now he looks like a lock for unanimous AL Cy Young honors after taking home the AL's pitching Triple Crown as the league leader in wins (18), ERA (2.39) and strikeouts (228), and he certainly pitched like an ace down the stretch to help the Tigers complete their shocking second-half surge.
Over his final nine starts of the regular season, Skubal went 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 66 strikeouts in 55.2 innings.
His 22 quality starts trailed only Zack Wheeler (26) for the MLB lead, and now he will have an opportunity to showcase his elite stuff on a national stage in his first trip to the postseason.

Thearon W. Henderson/ Gerrit Cole missed the first 75 games of the 2024 season recovering from shoulder inflammation that sidelined him near the end of spring training, which opened the door for AL Rookie of the Year front-runner Luis Gil to break camp with a rotation spot.
It took him some time to build up his arm and round into form once he finally returned to action in mid-June, but he was dealing down the stretch and looking more like his usual ace self.
The 34-year-old threw nine innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the Oakland Athletics on Sept. 20, then blanked the Baltimore Orioles over six innings in his final start of the regular season on Sept. 26.
In seven postseason starts in a Yankees uniform, he has gone 4-2 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 56 strikeouts in 38.2 innings.

Jim McIsaac/
Career Playoff ERA:
Zack Wheeler is putting the finishing touches on a five-year, $118 million deal that will go down as one of the best nine-figure contracts ever handed out, and the Philadelphia Phillies have already doubled down with a three-year, $126 million extension that kicks in next season.
His 25.4 WAR during that five-year span leads all pitchers by a significant margin, with Gerrit Cole (19.9), Max Fried (19.1), Corbin Burnes (18.6) and Logan Webb (17.5) rounding out the top five on that leaderboard .
The 34-year-old was brilliant last October, tossing a quality start in each of his four starts while posting a 1.95 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and a 35-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 27.2 innings.
That mix of regular-season consistency and recent playoff dominance was enough to earn Wheeler the No. 1 spot in these rankings.

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