Razor-thin margin separates Measure E from passing, too early to count it out

SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — The race for Measure E is still too close to call, political analyst Carl Luna says.

The measure would raise the City of San Diego's sales tax by 1%, up to 8.75%.

Early election results show the measure is not passing so far, with a NO vote leading at 50.90% with 198,791 voting NO. Meanwhile, 191,759 people, or 49.10% of votes so far, have voted for the measure.

Only 7,032 votes separates the measure from passing.

If passed, it would bring in up to $400 million in additional revenue for the city, something the mayor and city officials have said is needed to address the budget shortfall reaching around $200 million.

"It is definitely not a resounding vote of confidence in San Diego city hall that voters didn't want to give them an expanded taxpayer checkbook, it may pass we'll have to see when all the ballots are counted, but it passes it'll be by a smidge," Political Analyst Carl Luna said.

But just because it's trailing, doesn't mean it won't pass.

Michael Zucchet, with San Diego Municipal Employees Association, has been leading the support for Measure E.

"The City of San Diego has currently the lowest sales tax of any city in the county of San Diego and one of the lowest in the State of California and so that has consequences for the resources that are available for city services," Zucchet said.

Although economic and political climate timing to get the measure passed may not have been on their side this election cycle.

"Inflation and the cost of groceries and everything else being high, that is generally speaking, not a good time to ask would you like to pay more?" Zucchet said.

Luna said more conservatives voted in San Diego this election than in year's past – and early return ballots are typically more conservative, and as more democratic-leaning voters are typically more in favor of increasing taxes, this measure is too close to call.

"It'll just depend on whose ballots remain to be counted and there's a good chance this could still pass, but it wont be by a huge margin," Luna said.

Haney Hong with San Diego County Taxpayers Association has opposed Measure E and said he is confident the small lead will hold.

"I think that this being razor thin says that the voters of City of San Diego do not trust the city," Hong added.

If the measure does not pass, Luna said the city will need to cut its spending.

"Taxpayers and residents will have to face the reality they didn't vote for the sales tax so which parks do you want closed, which libraries reduced hours?" Luna said. "But there will be reductions."

And if the measure fails, Zucchet said it's probable, but may be too early to tell if and when a tax increase could be on the ballot again.

"It would just depend frankly depend a lot on the mayor and the city council and how they would react to this not passing and the budget consequences that may flow from there," Zucchet added.