Trump’s distant but ever-present impact on NYC public safety
What does a red electoral map mean for the men and women in blue? And local public safety in general?
President-elect Donald Trump's Nov. 5 victory could spell the return of the known police proponent to the White House, said Jill Snider , an ex-NYPD officer-turned policy director at R Street Institute and adjunct lecturer at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. Yet his impact remains largely symbolic given the limits to federal power over local and state law enforcement.
"Historically, I have never seen a president have that much of an impact on city agencies and the way in which they operate," Snider said. "But when you have a sitting president that comes out regularly speaking in a way that seems supportive of the first responders and law enforcement, that has a trickle down effect to the community, to the people who are watching the news and listening to local and national politics."
She said such support can benefit the NYPD's morale issues with retention and recruitment, as nearly 3,000 officers quit last year according to the Police Benevolent Association. Trump's support of city police extends past his last term, most notably when he attended the wake of slain NYPD officer Jonathan Diller this past March.
Alex Vitale , professor of sociology at Brooklyn College and the CUNY Graduate Center, said the police may see Trump as an ally towards broader "conservative law and order" policies, which can be parlayed for building support for bigger budgets and more impunity "in the face of demands for greater accountability for police misconduct."
Most immediately, Trump's thinly-veiled promise to gut the Department of Justice means the agency will likely no longer serve as a "backstop" to the most abusive police departments, jails and prisons, eliminating "at least one of the potential accountability mechanisms that can be invoked when local systems of accountability fail."
On a policy level, he said federal funding for non-police public safety efforts like the city's Crisis Management System could be at risk under a second Trump term. Additionally, potential cuts to social programs superficially unassociated with policing like affordable housing, mental health services and substance abuse treatment are a concern and factor into the criminal legal justice system.
Vitale said that for police abolitionists like himself , the election's recent fallout means also questioning the local New York political administration "and their willingness to give police near total impunity." While New York City remains largely a democratic stronghold, significantly lower margins between Kamala Harris against Trump compared to Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 certainly bring public safety's role into question politically.
"From a public safety angle, I think that he's going to prioritize those cities that most people in this country a week ago would have thought voted blue," said Snider. "But voters and citizens are understanding that they live in these communities. They care about their safety, they perceive that their safety is at risk, and they felt more confident that having a Republican in the White House would make them safer."
Snider believes even with Vice President Kamala Harris's prosecutorial background, public safety in big cities like New York was not addressed enough during her campaign and during the Biden presidency. Still, she is unsure how accurate those anxieties are given NYPD crime stats typically show steady reductions. But she said discounting public safety fears cannot be discounted by electeds even if numbers say otherwise.
"It's going to take a lot to get certain policymakers to be more attuned to what the statistics show us, but what they are trying to address is how the public feels about crime, and that's important, especially when you are someone who's running for public office," added Snider. "You care about what your constituents think and how they feel, not necessarily what the numbers reflect — they have to take that into consideration too, and be promoting to their constituents with what's really going on."
That is not to say Trump is entirely for expanding the carceral system and opposing criminal justice reform. Snider points to the First Step Act , which reduced the federal prison population and focused on reentry efforts.
However, the New York Civil Liberties Union (NYCLU) research during the election cycle pointed to voters in battleground districts throughout the state preferring "solutions-oriented" approaches rather than simple tougher-on-crime policies.
"One thing that we'd want to see as a response to an incoming federal administration that is very focused on trumpeting law enforcement as the [be-all and end-all], is that we look for ways to reduce police contacts in the first place," said NYCLU assistant policy director Michael Sisitzky. "And not have people run the risk of encountering a police officer and dealing with the criminal legal system when we can address that through other means.
"It can include things like Daniel's Law at the state level, which would set up a system for non-police response to people in mental health and substance use crises. It can include looking at ways to limit police contacts for things like for traffic stops that do not involve any kind of real public safety issue."
Sisitzky said Trump's victory for local policing means even further scrutiny towards how local police interact with federal law enforcement given the upcoming administration's planned mass deportations and anti-protester rhetoric. He also points to Trump's weakening of regulation for local police's access to military-grade equipment as a concern.
But what do the election results mean for tough-on-crime Democrats? Harlem Mothers and Fathers S.A.V.E. founder Jackie Rowe-Adams attributed Harris' victory mostly to gender rather than public safety. Rowe-Adams, who has long called for stricter enforcement on gun violence and believes "disrespect of police has gone too far," fears Trump's conviction record and subsequent presidential victory will send the wrong message to young Black men about the lack of accountability for criminality.
"They complain about public safety, but what they don't know is [that Kamala Harris was] a prosecutor and she is aware of crime — I think she would have done a good job with public safety," Rowe-Adams said. "On the other hand, I want us as a community, as a state, as a city, to recognize we depend on the leadership, but we have to do something too. We have to take back our community and take back our kids."
