When will the San Francisco mayoral race be finalized?

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) - In the city's most-watched race, San Franciscans might have a clearer idea of who will hold the keys to the city after 4 p.m. Thursday, when election officials will drop the next bath of results in the mayoral race.

After the first ranked-choice voting calculations, political newcomer Daniel Lurie is leading incumbent Mayor London Breed by more than 24,000 votes.

Whoever wins will have the responsibility of moving the city forward to address some of its biggest challenges in recent years: downtown recovery from the pandemic, homelessness and a drug epidemic, and public safety issues that have tarnished San Francisco's global reputation and frustrated residents.

Preliminary turnout numbers show less than half of the county's registered voters turned out in the Nov. 5 election-with 234,453 ballots cast out of 522,265 registered voters, according to the San Francisco Department of Elections.

PREVIOUS STORY: Lurie leads Breed after first rounds of ranked-choice voting

San Francisco uses ranked-choice voting (RCV) to determine who is voters' preferred choice for mayor. The candidate with the least amount of votes is eliminated in each round of RCV, and their votes are then given to the second choice on those voters ballots. The process of knocking and tallying continues until a candidate gets at least 50% of the vote, which can often take several rounds.

Although Lurie already has 56% of the vote after the latest round of RCV, the department cannot call the races as there are still tens of thousands of ballots that need to be counted.

On Wednesday, the department said it still has to process and count about 157,000 ballots before a final winner is announced. This includes provisional ballots and absentee ballots received the day before and on Election Day either by mail, drop boxes or polling places.

Depending on how other voters ranked their choices for mayor, Lurie could emerge as a winner by Thursday, but if Breed closes the gap, it could take longer before San Francisco knows who its next mayor is. Election officials said it could take up to three weeks for finalized results.

Lurie has never held public office. He is the founder of a San Francisco nonprofit called Tipping Point and is an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune.