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Why Penn State was ranked No. 6 by the College Football Playoff selection committee

V.Davis28 min ago
Penn State was a winner on Tuesday night when the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings was released by the selection committee.

The Nittany Lions were ranked No. 6 in the first set of CFP rankings in the 12-team era.

Penn State sat behind Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Texas, in that order, after the Nittany Lions lost to the Buckeyes last weekend at Beaver Stadium. But crucially, James Franklin 's team stood above No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 Indiana and the rest.

So, why were the Nittany Lions ranked where they were? And what does it mean for them moving forward? We take a deep dive into the CFP committee's initial rankings.

The reasoning behind Penn State's ranking

CFP chair Warde Manuel met with reporters on a Tuesday night teleconference to answer questions about the first set of rankings. Manuel, Michigan's athletic director, was asked about Penn State, its standing at No. 6 and its resume against Tennessee and others.

Manuel brought up Penn State's narrow loss to Ohio State, its non-conference road win at West Virginia to open the season and the brilliance of tight end Tyler Warren.

"Penn State lost to the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, and it was a game that was back and forth. Obviously, a game that could have gone the other way. It was back and forth," Manuel said. "They have wins over Illinois and Southern Cal in overtime. Opening win at West Virginia, which is difficult to play. We looked at their body of work.

"... Looking at the resume, looking at what we've seen, the offensive performance and their tight end Tyler Warren is a dominating force on offense. I just think Penn State in terms of their body of work, and what the committee saw in terms of their body of work, came to the ranking of Penn State at No. 6 and Tennessee at No. 7."

  • BETTING:
  • Strength of schedule matters

    There was online outrage that Indiana was being disrespected. The Hoosiers are undefeated, winning their nine games by a combined 296 points. Some thought Indiana should have been ranked above Penn State and Tennessee. Manuel mentioned strength of schedule (SOS) as a big factor.

    According to ESPN's metrics, Indiana's SOS ranks 103rd among 134 FBS teams. The Hoosiers played Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte at home in the non-conference. In Big Ten play, the Hoosiers have throttled UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington and Michigan State. Those teams have a combined 25-27 record this season.

    Penn State's SOS is 28th. The Nittany Lions overwhelmed West Virginia, 34-12, on the road in the opener. Their four Big Ten wins are against teams — Illinois, UCLA, USC and Wisconsin — with a combined 18-17 record.

    Tennessee's SOS is 33rd. The Volunteers smoked N.C. State, 51-10, in Charlotte in the non-conference. They have a top-15 win over Alabama and a bad loss to Arkansas.

    Can Penn State still win the Big Ten championship?

    It's extremely unlikely, but there is a path for Penn State to achieve its best-case scenario.

    Penn State has a 5.2% chance to win the Big Ten, according to ESPN's projections . The Nittany Lions would need an 11-1 record and a lot of help to get to Indianapolis.

    The most likely outcome is Indiana beating Michigan and Ohio State beating Purdue this weekend, leaving a Nov. 16 matchup between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers to decide who goes to the Big Ten title game to face Oregon (assuming they run the table).

    But if Indiana loses to Michigan and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions would be an Ohio State loss to Michigan away from going to the Big Ten championship game. Indiana and Ohio State would have two conference losses, and Penn State would have only one.

    Why does all this matter? Well, banners fly forever. Winning the conference still matters as a point of pride. Crucially, the Big Ten champ would also get a first-round bye in the CFP.

    Again, it's highly, highly unlikely. But it's not totally out of the question.

    Week 11 rooting interests

    Indiana has been awesome. What Curt Cignetti, Kurtis Rourke and Hoosiers have done is one of the stories of the college football season so far. But Penn State fans should root for their downfall.

    Maybe Purdue can pull off the impossible upset? Ohio State has a 99% chance to win, per ESPN. But hey, it's something to root for at noon.

    Outside of the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions want this to be as clean as possible. A two-loss Ole Miss picking up a signature win over Georgia would launch the Rebels back into the top-10 conversation. But the Dawgs would still be alive.

    Bottom line

    Penn State is in a great spot. If the Nittany Lions win out — if they beat Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland — they'll be in the field. And starting out at No. 6, running the table the rest of the regular season would almost assuredly secure a home playoff game — maybe even the coveted No. 5 seed against, most likely, the Group of Five representative.

    If Penn State loses to, say, Washington and wins the rest of its games, it gets a little dicey. Hosting a playoff game might be out the window. But a 10-2 record would still be good enough in most scenarios to get into the field.

    Franklin will be harping on beating the Huskies (and the rest of the teams on the schedule) as the Nittany Lions effectively decide their own CFP fate.

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