2025 outlooks for the NFL’s 4 most disappointing teams, plus coach-firing forecast
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Good morning. Last night, the Eagles won their sixth in a row, reaching 8-2 and dropping Washington to 7-4, thanks largely to Saquon Barkley . A lot to unpack today:
Most Disappointing: Not tanking, just not good
Death, taxes and the Jets disappointing their fans.
As one fan explained in The Athletic's Preseason Hope-O-Meter , "This roster on paper looks like a lock for 10-plus wins. But, my god, they are still the New York Jets. They have let me down more than most pallbearers."
Earlier this week, thousands of you voted in this newsletter's poll on 2024's biggest letdowns. Before we talk about those teams' 2025 prospects, here's how you ranked them right now:
- Jets (3-7). They finally won something! Responses for the most disappointing team this season included: "JETS = Just End The Season." At this time last year, the Zach Wilson -led Jets were 4-5. Yikes.
- Cowboys (3-6). This one surprised me, since their fans had been 30th in Hope-O-Meter score this preseason. Weren't you expecting disappointment? But they've looked even worse than expected, with one poll response noting, "They are the Florida State of the NFL. So much expected. So much not delivered." (Unfair. FSU has won a title in this century.)
- Bengals (4-6). They entered with the sixth-highest optimism score, and as one commenter noted this week, "This team is the only one on the list that had REAL Super Bowl aspirations before the season." Change could be on the horizon as DC Lou Anarumo shuffles his secondary .
- Bears (4-5). Arguably the most painful of the group. Chicago entered the season with the third-most optimistic fans (only the currently 8-1 Lions and 9-0 Chiefs had higher scores). After nine games, the Bears are at a crossroads while Caleb Williams regresses.
Hope for next year?
While 2024 hasn't gone as planned, should we be optimistic for next season? Here's where each of these teams ranks in my 2025 optimism score, plus notes from beat writers:
No. 1: Bears. Adam Jahns : "You're asking about 2025! There are still eight games left in this season. But I get it. Things look bleak.
"Any optimism should be rooted in Caleb Williams. He's in a rough stretch right now, but he's still the future of the team. He wouldn't be the first rookie quarterback to struggle in his first season and then show off his talents in his second."
No. 2: Cowboys. Jon Machota : "There are reasons for optimism in 2025. If things keep heading down this dark path, there will be notable offseason changes. That would likely include significant coaching staff and personnel changes.
"They also appear to be setting themselves up to be drafting very early. The Cowboys have done some of their best work in these situations. Jerry Jones is well aware of the frustration in the fan base. I expect Dallas to be much more active this offseason."
No. 3: Bengals. Paul Dehner Jr. : "Hmm. Joe Burrow will definitely still be the quarterback. They should have a significant chunk of underperforming veterans with team-friendly exits on their contracts and a pile of cap room. Does that do anything for you?
"Incredibly, the optimism about this 4-6 season being salvaged is far higher than the long-term view. Questions surrounding this previously beloved coaching staff are growing. Their defense developed zero surefire building blocks despite three years of investing Day 1 and 2 picks. Tee Higgins will walk, and nobody seems capable of filling his shoes. Major restructuring around Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase — who is about to ask for eleventy-billion dollars — is inevitable."
No. 4: Jets. Zack Rosenblatt : "It's hard to be optimistic about much without knowing which coach or general manager will try to steer the Titanic away from the iceberg.
"If you're telling me they somehow land Mike Vrabel or Ben Johnson to be their head coach, then I think there will be reason for optimism, since there still is a lot of young talent — Garrett Wilson , Quinnen Williams , Sauce Gardner and a few others worth building around — in need of some direction.
"Otherwise, the Jets have a lot of notable players set to hit free agency, and Aaron Rodgers already looks like a shell of himself, so there's little reason to believe he'll find the fountain of youth (or cayenne pepper and water)."
As for whether Rodgers will be back, the nearly 41-year-old said, "I think so, yeah." Now, over to Dianna on some other teams also soon to be looking ahead.
What Dianna's Hearing: Welcome to a busy coach-hiring cycle
On today's episode of the "Scoop City" podcast, co-host Chase Daniel and me talked all things coaching carousel, which is already underway for the Jets and Saints :
Chase: Why do you think it is starting earlier (than in most previous years)?
Dianna: Having two top candidates like Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel on the street — on the beach — (teams) are ready to jump in. It makes a lot of these moves very alluring in terms of change, right? Even if you don't want to hire Bill or Mike, you at least know that there's two really good coaches available, if you don't like what you have in-house. I went back to my notes to see where we were at this time last year, and I actually wasn't even really talking with this much emphasis on the changes at head coach. It was right around Thanksgiving, the week after, that really got that cycle going. And we were predicting about eight openings. Seven new head coaches were hired. Here we are now, it's mid-November, and I feel like we need to discuss the fact that I think you'll be talking about nine or 10 openings.
Chase: Stop it.
Dianna: Look at it this way: There's a bunch of the obvious ones that we've been talking about since pretty much last year. But then there's always an outlier team. You have coaches possibly stepping away, you have to consider those.
Last year was interesting: The hires were the hot play-callers, the guys who can get the most out of the young quarterbacks, right? And now we've swung back to the culture builders, the Dan Campbell's, Raheem Morris, the Mike Tomlin-types. That is what's going to be a desire in this coaching cycle.
Every Friday, I share three stories from The Athletic that you might have missed. All offer deeper looks into the lives of players and coaches we watch on Sunday.
- "She even cooks better than my grandma, and I don't put no one above my granny," said former Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed . Sneed's praise was for Maria Spagnuolo, wife of Steve, the Chiefs' legendary defensive coordinator. She's one secret weapon Dan Pompei uncovers in his illuminating profile on the man Tom Brady called "the bane of my existence." Pro tip: Avoid if you're hungry.
- As Mike Silver writes, "Though there have been some stellar coaching jobs this season — by Matt LaFleur, Kevin O'Connell, Dan Campbell, Raheem Morris, Dan Quinn and others — Tomlin's masterful touch in guiding the Steelers to a 7-2 record has been unparalleled." In a detailed profile of the coach with the 12th-most wins all time (180), Silver details why Tomlin is his Coach of the Year , so far.
- Had the 2023 season ended differently, we might've seen Joe Alt on the Bears and Jayden Daniels leading the Buccaneers , while Marvin Harrison Jr. could've been the first receiver drafted No. 2 since Calvin Johnson. For a trip down memory lane, revisit Dane Brugler's first 2024 mock draft from November of last year.
Week 11 Watch Guide: Steelers-Ravens, Bengals- Chargers
Based on StubHub's ticket prices , the Bills -Chiefs (min. $273) and Steelers- Ravens ($294) matchups are the biggest draws, while the Cowboys and Saints ($25 and $29, respectively) have hit the discount bin.
Here's the schedule:
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET:
Sunday at 4:05 and 4:25 p.m.:
Sunday at 8:20 p.m.:
Monday at 8:15:
Before we go: Yesterday's most-clicked was Mike Sando's QB Betrayal Index. Enjoy the weekend!
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