2024-’25 Winter Outlook Deeper Dive

Our Winter Outlook for 2024-25 is calling for above normal temperatures in Central New York along with below normal snowfall for Syracuse, specifically 85"-115" which would be our snowiest winter since the beginning of the decade.

We know some of you want to look "under the hood" so to speak and get a deeper dive into our reasoning behind the Central New York Winter Outlook.

So here it goes....

Look west (very far west) When making a seasonal outlook, we tend to look at patterns that take place quite a distance from Central New York and many times we land in the largest body of water on the planet, the Pacific Ocean. There seems to be connections between temperatures out there that play out with our winter weather.

First, we are coming out of a strong El Nino, which is warmer than normal waters in the Equatorial Pacific, and transitioning to a La Nina or cooler water in that same spot in the Pacific. You can see the cooler than normal waters show up as the blue 'blob' in the middle of this map below.

In addition, there is a set up in the waters of the northern Pacific called the 'Pacific Decadal Oscillation' or 'PDO' Waters are currently cooler than normal near the Pacific Northwest but warmer in the Pacific Ocean off Japan. The map below shows the average sea surface temperature in typical negative PDO.

This is the 'negative' phase and typically leads to milder winters in the Eastern US. This particular pattern sets up for longer periods of time than just the winter or summer (thus the term 'Decadal' in the title). This current negative phase of the PDO developed in 2020 and has continued for the last five years and coincides with our stretch of mild winters

What do both of these factors tell us?

It won't be as warm as last winter (which was the warmest on record) because the El Nino is gone but averaged over the months of December through February, Central New York would be in for another warmer than normal winter with more bouts of cold sprinkled in than recent winters. Forecasting those shorter term changes to colder weather are possible, but only a few weeks in advance so we can't get that precise in a longer term winter outlook like this as to when they might occur.

Last winter was 7.8 degrees warmer than normal (!!!!) due in part to the strong La Nina, but if we take a look at the last three La Nina/Negative PDO winters, the temperatures were between 1.5 and and 5 degrees above normal and that seems like a good range for this winter.

2020-'21 +1.8 F 2021-'22 +1.5 F 2022-'23 +5.1 F A word of caution... Before we get to the snowfall part of the forecast, full disclosure: the last two winter snowfall forecasts we've made have been off the mark. Bottom line: use this part of the forecast with caution.

With El Nino no longer an issue, there would be more snow than last winter in part because it won't be as warm.

Also, we are headed into a weak La Nina, meaning the Pacific waters aren't that much cooler than normal, a difference from some of our more recent lackluster La Nina winters. In warmer winters there is a tendency for more snowfall when the La Nina is weak compared to moderate one.

We mentioned we are currently in a weak La Nina so what does that tell us? There have been a dozen weak La Nina events that have straddled the winter season since 1950 and the average snowfall from those 12 winters is 124", close to our average winter (127").

Since we are already forecasting a warmer than normal winter, we narrowed the search down to the seven weak La Nina winters that also ended up warmer than normal. The average comes down to 111.7" and keep in mind one of these weak La Ninas was just two years ago

1954-'55 101.4" 1971-'72 133.7" 1974-'75 105.5" 1984-'85 116.4" 2005-'06 124.6" 2016-'17 134.9" 2022-'23 65.6" So we are going to be cautiously optimistic (for snow lovers!) and forecast a Syracuse winter snowfall of 85" to 115" which is lower than a handful of the past years listed above but the history of our past five winters is keeping us from going above 115"

Can Lake Ontario come through?? The final wild card is Lake Ontario. In a normal winter it is a source for a big chunk of the seasonal snow for parts of Central New York, especially the Tug Hill Plateau where seasonal snowfall averages between 200 to 300 inches per winter.

Lake Ontario is running warmer than normal again. We headed into the beginning of November with a lake temperature averaging 5 degrees above normal. This is the warmest it has been at this point in the season since 1995.

But we've heard that story before. Warmer than normal lake temperatures over the last couple of winters has not led to above normal snowfall in Central New York as the wind has been unfavorable and there has not been much cold air. When both of these have lined up, Buffalo and Watertown have borne the brunt of the lake snow.

Using past weak La Nina points to more productive lake effect over the Tug Hill so this would be good news for snowmobilers.

So there is the breakdown. Let's see what Mother Nature gives us over the next few months.

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"We used to hate elephants a lot," Kenyan farmer Charity Mwangome says, pausing from her work under the shade of a baobab tree.The bees humming in the background are part of the reason why her hatred has dimmed.The diminutive 58-year-old said rapacious elephants would often destroy months of work in her farmland that sits between two parts of Kenya's world-renowned Tsavo National Park.Beloved by tourists - who contribute around 10 percent of Kenya's GDP - the animals are loathed by most local farmers, who form the backbone of the nation's economy.Elephant conservation has been a roaring success: numbers in Tsavo rose from around 6,000 in the mid-1990s to almost 15,000 elephants in 2021, according to the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS).But the human population also expanded, encroaching on grazing and migration routes for the herds.Resulting clashes are becoming the number one cause of elephant deaths, says KWS.Refused compensation when she lost her crops, Mwangome admits she was mad with the conservationists. But a long-running project by charity Save the Elephants offered her an unlikely solution - deterring some of nature's biggest animals with some of its smallest: African honeybees.Cheery yellow beehive fences now protect several local plots, including Mwangome's. A nine-year study published last month found that elephants avoided farms with the ferocious bees 86 percent of the time."The beehive fences came to our rescue," said Mwangome.- Hacking nature -The deep humming of 70,000 bees is enough to make many flee, including a six-tonne elephant, but Loise Kawira calmly removes a tray in her apiary to demonstrate the intricate combs of wax and honey.Kawira, who joined Save the Elephants in 2021 as their consultant beekeeper, trains and monitors farmers in the delicate art.The project supports 49 farmers, whose plots are surrounded by 15 connected hives. Each is strung on greased wire a few metres off the ground, which protects them from badgers and insects, but also means they shake when disturbed by a hungry elephant. "Once the elephants hear the sound of the bees and the smell, they run away," Kawira told AFP."It hacks the interaction between elephants and bees," added Ewan Brennan, local project coordinator. It has been effective, but recent droughts, exacerbated by climate change, have raised challenges."(In) the total heat, the dryness, bees have absconded," said Kawira.It is also expensive - about 150,000 Kenyan shillings ($1,100) to install hives - well beyond the means of subsistence farmers, though the project organisers say it is still cheaper than electric fences.- 'I was going to die' -Just moments after AFP arrived at Mwanajuma Kibula's farm, which abuts one of the Tsavo parks, her beehive fence had seen off an elephant.The five-tonne animal, its skin caked in red mud, rumbled into the area and then did an abrupt about-face. "I know my crops are protected," Kibula said with palpable relief.Kibula, 48, also harvests honey twice a year from her hives, making 450 shillings per jar - enough to pay school fees for her children.She is fortunate to have protection from the biggest land mammals on Earth."An elephant ripped off my roof, I had to hide under the bed because I knew I was going to die," said a less-fortunate neighbour, Hendrita Mwalada, 67.For those who can't afford bees, Save the Elephants offers other solutions, such as metal-sheet fences that clatter when shaken by approaching elephants, and diesel- or chilli-soaked rags that deter them. It is not always enough. "I have tried planting but every time the crops are ready, the elephants come and destroy the crops," Mwalada told AFP."That has been the story of my life, a life full of too much struggling."ra-rbu/er/kjm