Jim Hartman: GOP wins Senate control. What it means to judiciary and Trump agenda
Control of the U.S. Senate was up for grabs on Tuesday, with Democrats going into the election having a 51-49 vote majority, including four independents caucusing with Democrats.
Two of those independents, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, are retiring from Congress.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report projected before the election Republicans could be expected to gain from two to five seats, which would secure GOP control of the Senate.
This year's U.S. Senate elections are unusually important.
If Kamala Harris were to have won the presidency, and Democrats were to keep a Senate majority and win the House, a radical remaking of American institutions would follow.
Harris had endorsed overriding the Senate's 60-vote filibuster rule to enact a national abortion law that would go far beyond simply codifying Roe v. Wade.
In 2022, Democrats tried to bypass the filibuster to nationalize liberal election rules, including California-style ballot harvesting, but Sens. Manchin and Sinema resisted. As a result, they were run out of the party.
While some Senate Democrats profess to want only a few legislative filibuster "carve outs," in reality they want to end the Senate filibuster rule. Legislation to "restructure" the Supreme Court to have 15 Justices would have been actively pursued.
Making the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico states with two senators each on a partisan vote by one party for its own political advantage would be next.
With Republicans now retaking the Senate in 2024, this progressive deluge to transform America would be halted. But the margin matters because the Senate's electoral maps for 2026 and 2028 are more favorable to Democrats.
If the GOP came out of this election with 51 seats, it would be a win, but that small majority might be hard to retain. A larger Senate Republican victory is needed.
With Trump's landslide election and with a GOP Senate, a whole different scenario unfolds. The Senate will confirm Trump's judicial and political nominations and support his legislative agenda on taxes and immigration.
The retirement of the Supreme Court's oldest members, Clarence Thomas (76) and Sam Alito (74), and their replacement by younger conservative justices might occur.
On the other hand, a Democratic Senate would likely have blocked Trump's appointment of any non-liberal nominee. The future of the Supreme Court is in play.
Manchin's retirement in ruby-red West Virginia left an easy opening for the state's Republican Gov. Jim Justice to flip his seat. Justice's 41% win provides the GOP with its 50th seat.
The 51st seat came in Montana, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester lost to his GOP challenger, businessman and former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy, by over 8%.
Republicans also had their sights on Senate races in Ohio and the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These "blue wall" states backed Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Trump again in 2024.
In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno, a Columbian immigrant, defeated three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by 4%, giving the GOP their 52nd seat.
Pennsylvania's longtime Democratic Sen. Bob Casey trails Republican businessman Dave McCormick by 32,000 votes in a race still to be called.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin holds a slim 16,500-vote lead over former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, with the race now called for her.
Wisconsin's Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has been declared the winner, with a smaller than 1% margin, over her Republican challenger Eric Hovde.
Nevada's Senate race is leaning toward incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen over her underdog Republican challenger, Capt. Sam Brown. As of Friday, Rosen captured 47.76% of the vote to Brown's 46.5%.
Also on Friday, Trump's lead in Nevada was 50.77% to Harris' 47.36%.
Republicans are assured of winning a 52-seat Senate majority. They may exceed expectations by winning two additional races, potentially holding 54 seats.
