Warning: 14 inches of snow possible with lake-effect storm heading Greater Cleveland’s way

CLEVELAND, Ohio - The first real snow of the 2023-2024 winter season might be upon us.

The National Weather Service issued a lake-effect snow warning at 10 a.m. on Monday, forecasting heavy snow from 9 p.m. Monday and throughout Tuesday.

The worst of it is expected to hit Lake and Ashtabula counties, where 8 to 14 inches of snow is forecasted. In eastern Cuyahoga County, amounts could reach near a foot, a metrologist at the National Weather Service in Cleveland said.

The forecast for Cleveland Hopkins International Airport in western Cuyahoga County calls for 4 to 8 inches, with 2 inches possible Monday night.

There could be significant impacts on Tuesday morning commute times, the weather service warned. Tuesday morning will have the highest chance of snow, at 80%. It will drop to 50% by midday.

In addition to snow, winds will pick up to 35 mph in some areas, blowing snow and reducing visibility.

The weather service recommends keeping an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

This is the typical time for lake effect snow, which is common in the late fall and early winter of the Great Lakes region. It occurs when cold air, usually from Canada, moves across the warm, open waters of lakes like Lake Erie. After the lake freezes over, lake effect snow is over.

This is the second expected snow for Cleveland this fall after 2.7 inches during an Oct. 31-Nov. 1 storm , as recorded at the airport.

The last snow warning in Greater Cleveland came on March 19 for Geauga County, one of the few in Cleveland’s previous mild winter . The last winter storm warning that resulted in multiple inches of snow occurred on December 23, 2022.

After Tuesday, the lake effect warning should lift, with cloudy skies forecasted for Wednesday and Thursday morning. But expect rain by Thursday night, which will last into Friday.

Zachary Smith is the data reporter for cleveland.com. You can reach him at See previous data stories at this link.